有色金属行业周报：非农爆冷金价冲高回落，Pilbara下修产量指引锂行业持续出清

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of macroeconomic factors on the precious metals market, particularly gold, which is supported by inflation expectations and geopolitical risks. The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a significant drop, indicating potential economic soft landing risks, which may lead to continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]. - In the industrial metals sector, copper prices are expected to show resilience due to optimistic domestic macroeconomic sentiment, despite cautious overseas market conditions. The report notes a mixed supply situation with some production disruptions, particularly in Chile [2]. - The lithium sector is undergoing a supply-demand adjustment, with Pilbara reducing its production guidance, indicating a shift towards supply-side balance. The report anticipates that lithium prices will remain low, pressuring high-cost producers [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a mixed performance, with the overall index rising by 1.6%. The new materials sector surged by 10.2%, while precious metals declined by 1.6% [10]. - Specific stock performances included significant gains for companies like Zhenghai Magnetic Materials (+50%) and Yunnan Zinc Industry (+33%), while companies like Hesheng Silicon (-12%) and Feiliwa (-10%) faced declines [13]. 2. Industrial Metals - Copper: The report notes cautious sentiment in overseas markets but maintains a positive outlook for domestic demand. Global copper inventories increased slightly, with domestic stocks rising by 0.56 thousand tons [2]. - Aluminum: The report indicates that domestic fiscal policies are positively impacting aluminum prices, with production capacity reaching a historical high of 43.69 million tons [2]. 3. Energy Metals - Lithium: Pilbara's downward revision of production guidance signals a shift towards supply-demand clearing. Current lithium carbonate prices are reported at 76,000 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 2.1% [2]. - Silicon Metal: The report highlights rising production costs due to seasonal electricity price increases, which are expected to support aluminum prices in the short term [2]. 4. Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the ongoing support for gold prices from inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks, suggesting that gold may continue to experience high volatility in the short term [2]. 5. Company Announcements - Notable announcements include Tianqi Lithium's budget adjustment for its lithium project to AUD 881.3 million (approximately CNY 4.127 billion), expected to be completed by 2025 [18].