Orient Securities(600958) 海通证券·2024-11-03 06:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1][3]. Core Views - The report highlights significant growth in the company's proprietary trading business, with a year-on-year increase of 69.1% in investment income for the first three quarters of 2024. However, the asset management business has seen a substantial decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 37.1% [3][5]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 14.08 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 3.30 billion yuan, up 15.6% year-on-year [3][5]. - The report projects a reasonable value range for the company's stock between 9.52 and 11.25 yuan, based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.1-1.3x for 2024 [5][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating income of 14.08 billion yuan, a 2.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.30 billion yuan, which is a 15.6% increase year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) was 0.37 yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 4.2%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3][5]. - The third quarter alone saw operating income of 5.51 billion yuan, a 10.2% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.19 billion yuan, which is a 24.6% increase year-on-year [3][5]. Business Segments - The brokerage business generated revenue of 1.60 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, down 26.0% year-on-year, accounting for 17.5% of total revenue. The average daily trading volume in the market decreased by 7.8% year-on-year [4][5]. - The investment banking segment reported revenue of 830 million yuan, down 30.2% year-on-year, with equity underwriting down 80.2% but bond underwriting up 18.5% [4][5]. - The asset management segment's revenue was 1.02 billion yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year, with total assets under management at 224.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.6% from the beginning of the year [5][4]. Future Projections - The report forecasts EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.48 yuan, 0.57 yuan, and 0.61 yuan respectively, with book value per share (BVPS) projected at 8.65 yuan, 8.92 yuan, and 9.22 yuan for the same years [6][9]. - The company is expected to continue its transformation in wealth management and fund management, which are seen as growth areas [5][3].