战略看多系列：铝-供应刚性、资源重估

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the aluminum industry, highlighting supply rigidity and resource revaluation as key factors driving investment opportunities [2]. Core Insights - The demand for aluminum is expected to reach a significant turning point, driven by a combination of economic policies and market dynamics [2]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve has officially entered a rate-cutting cycle, which is anticipated to further stimulate economic activity and demand for aluminum [3]. - Domestic counter-cyclical policies in China are expected to continue to support economic growth, particularly in the real estate and capital markets [6]. Summary by Sections Economic Environment - The U.S. unemployment rate has risen from 3.4% to over 4% in 2023, indicating increasing economic pressure [3]. - U.S. inflation has decreased significantly, with the CPI dropping from 9.1% in June 2022 to 2.4% currently, suggesting a stabilizing economic environment [3]. - The Federal Reserve's recent 50 basis point rate cut marks the beginning of a new monetary easing phase, with expectations of further cuts in the coming year [3]. Aluminum Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production has reached a historical high of 33.66 million tons, a 4% increase year-on-year [10]. - The production of alumina has only increased by 2% year-on-year, leading to a supply-demand mismatch and tightening spot market conditions [10]. - The report highlights a significant shortage of bauxite supply, particularly due to production halts in key regions like Henan and Shanxi, which has exacerbated the alumina supply issues [12][13]. Future Projections - By 2025, global bauxite production is expected to increase significantly, particularly from Guinea, although actual supply may be constrained by logistical challenges [15]. - The report anticipates that the new alumina projects will lead to an oversupply situation, potentially driving down profits and forcing high-cost production out of the market [19]. - The aluminum industry is expected to see a shift in demand dynamics, with the renewable energy sector's demand for aluminum projected to surpass that of the construction sector in the near future [30].