Jiangshan Oupai(SH:603208) Haitong Securities·2024-11-03 07:21Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangshan Oupai is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.26 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 16.56% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 160 million yuan, down 43.86% [5] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 820 million yuan, a decline of 26.14% year-on-year, and a net profit of 60 million yuan, down 60.77% [5] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 22.81%, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points [5] - The company opened 21,416 new franchise dealers in the first nine months of 2024, totaling 57,895 franchise dealers by the end of Q3 2024 [6] - The forecasted net profits for 2024 and 2025 are 280 million yuan and 310 million yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year change of -27% and +10% [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the revenue from plywood doors, solid wood composite doors, and cabinet products was 1.27 billion yuan, 370 million yuan, and 150 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 21.35%, 31.92%, and 13.98% [5] - The gross margins for these products were 22.59%, 18.27%, and 16.41%, showing declines of 3.89 percentage points, 3.81 percentage points, and 4.64 percentage points, respectively [5] - The company’s revenue from distributors and bulk channels was 520 million yuan and 1.55 billion yuan, down 29.24% and 15.61% year-on-year [6] - The gross margins for these channels were 20.25% and 19.79%, with decreases of 3.25 percentage points and 3.98 percentage points, respectively [6] Valuation and Forecast - The company is expected to have a reasonable valuation range of 20.84 to 24.04 yuan based on a PE ratio of 13-15 times for 2024 [6] - The average PE ratios for comparable companies in the industry for 2024E and 2025E are 14.38 and 13.24, respectively [8]