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基础化工:PA6、氨纶价格承压,织物制品出口同比下滑
Huafu Securities·2024-11-03 08:03

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][32]. Core Insights - The PA6 and spandex prices are under pressure, with textile product exports declining year-on-year [2]. - As of November 1, the China Chemical Fiber Index is at 842.6 points, with a month-on-month decline of 6.8%. The China Basic Chemical Index has decreased by 4.3%, while the CSI 300 Index has dropped by 4.9% [2]. - The report suggests that domestic demand is improving alongside overseas destocking, which may enhance fiber demand. The supply side indicates that after this round of capacity expansion, the concentration of segmented products continues to rise, and the pace of future expansion is expected to slow down, leading to an upturn in industry prosperity [2]. Summary by Sections Prices - PA6 price is 12,550 CNY/ton, down 8.4% month-on-month. Spandex price is 24,000 CNY/ton, down 4.0% month-on-month. Other prices include viscose filament at 44,750 CNY/ton (0.0%), caprolactam at 10,575 CNY/ton (down 7.2%), and nylon short fiber at 14,250 CNY/ton (down 6.6%) [2][8]. Supply - The operating rates are high, with spandex at 87% and inventory at 49 days. Acrylic has an operating rate of 48.7% with 15 days of inventory. Viscose short fiber has an operating rate of 89% and only 4 days of inventory [2][18]. Downstream - In September, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and their products was 1.07 billion USD, down 10.7% year-on-year. The export value of clothing and accessories was 13.53 billion USD, down 5.1% year-on-year. In August, the inventory of U.S. clothing and fabric wholesalers was 28.885 billion USD, up 0.7% month-on-month [2][25].