华金宏观·双循环周报（第80期）：美国消费持续火热，日本央行言不由衷

Group 1: US Economic Performance - Q3 2024 US GDP growth reached 2.7%, driven by strong consumer spending in goods and services[1] - Consumer spending increased by 0.9% in Q3, with durable goods and nondurable goods rising by 2.0% and 1.2%, respectively[1] - The US government is implementing a rare policy mix of high fiscal deficit, monetary easing, and protectionist industrial policies, enhancing the likelihood of a sustained "high growth + high inflation" model[1] Group 2: Labor Market Insights - October ADP employment data showed a significant increase of 233,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations[10] - The labor market is tightening, with expectations for strong official non-farm payroll data to be released soon[10] Group 3: Inflation Trends - The US core PCEPI remained steady at 2.7% for three consecutive months, indicating persistent inflation pressures[11] - In contrast, the Eurozone's core HICP remained flat at 2.7%, suggesting weaker consumer demand than previously anticipated[11] Group 4: Global Monetary Policy Outlook - The European Central Bank may consider a rate cut of 25-50 basis points in December to stimulate demand, given the ongoing low inflation[11] - The Bank of Japan maintained a neutral stance, but risks of renewed inflation decline are increasing, potentially leading to a shift towards monetary easing by 2025[17] Group 5: Market Implications - The Federal Reserve is likely to revise its GDP growth forecasts upward and lower unemployment projections in December, impacting its interest rate path[1] - A potential rise in the US dollar index is anticipated if the Fed adopts a more hawkish stance in the upcoming FOMC meeting[18]