JOINN(603127) 国泰君安·2024-11-03 08:16Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 19.60 RMB [2] - The current price is 16.96 RMB, indicating potential upside [2] Core Views - Short-term pressure on gross margin, but order backlog supports growth [3] - Capacity expansion and internationalization are progressing steadily [3] - Revenue for 2024 Q1-Q3 was 1.335 billion RMB, down 15.87% YoY [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was -70 million RMB, with a significant loss from changes in fair value of biological assets [3] - Q3 revenue was 486 million RMB, down 15.51% YoY, with net profit of 99 million RMB, down 58.04% YoY [3] - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 revised to 0.08/0.52/0.68 RMB from 0.65/0.76/0.88 RMB [3] - Gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 27.48%, down 16.29 pct YoY, with Q3 gross margin at 22.43%, down 20.36 pct YoY [3] - Order backlog as of H1 2024 was 2.9 billion RMB, with new orders of 900 million RMB [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 2.001 billion RMB, down 15.8% YoY [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024E is expected to be 56 million RMB, down 85.8% YoY [4] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at 0.08 RMB, with ROE at 0.7% [4] - Revenue for 2025E and 2026E is projected to grow by 15.2% and 14.2% respectively [4] - Net profit for 2025E and 2026E is expected to be 392 million RMB and 510 million RMB respectively [4] Capacity and Internationalization - Suzhou Zhaoyan Phase II facility (20,000 m²) is expected to be operational by early 2025 [3] - Suzhou's 22,000 m² supporting facility is expected to be completed by the end of 2024 [3] - Guangzhou safety evaluation base construction is progressing [3] - Overseas subsidiary Biomere secured new orders of approximately 140 million RMB in H1 2024 [3] - International revenue in 2023 was 579 million RMB, up 51.20% YoY [3] Market Data - 52-week stock price range is 12.46-28.58 RMB [5] - Total market capitalization is 12.711 billion RMB [5] - Total shares outstanding are 749 million, with 630 million A-shares [5] Balance Sheet Highlights - Shareholders' equity is 8.002 billion RMB [6] - Net asset per share is 10.68 RMB [6] - Price-to-book ratio is 1.6 [6] - Net debt ratio is -39.84% [6] Peer Comparison - Comparable companies include Pharmaron (300759 SZ) and WuXi AppTec (603259 SH) [10] - Average PE ratio for peers is 37.63x for 2024E and 22.62x for 2026E [10] Catalysts - Rapid release of new capacity [3] - Expansion of new businesses exceeding expectations [3] - Growth in order backlog [3]