一周综评与展望：政策显效，制造业景气回暖行

Macro Research Summary - The report highlights that policies are beginning to take effect, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The non-manufacturing sector also shows positive signs, with the construction PMI at 50.4% and the services PMI at 50.1%, suggesting that both sectors are in a growth zone [1] - Despite the positive PMI data, industrial profits for large-scale enterprises fell by 3.5% year-on-year, totaling 52,281.6 billion yuan from January to September, indicating that the recovery in production has yet to translate into profit [1] - The report notes that the current challenges for enterprises include low factory gate prices and high raw material costs, which are causing cost growth to outpace revenue growth [1] - However, new industrial dynamics are showing resilience, and with the expected effectiveness of policies, industrial enterprises' profit expectations are likely to stabilize [1] - The report anticipates that the National People's Congress will convene from November 4 to 8, where more incremental policies are expected to be implemented, supporting the goal of achieving around 5% economic growth for the year [1] Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China introduced a new open market buyout reverse repurchase operation tool on October 28, which is designed to enhance liquidity in the interbank market [2] - This new tool differs from the traditional pledge-style repurchase, as it does not require collateral to be frozen, thus improving overall market liquidity [2] - The tool's maturity is capped at one year, addressing the current lack of medium to short-term liquidity instruments in the monetary policy toolbox [2] U.S. Economic Data Overview - The U.S. labor department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by only 12,000 in October, significantly below market expectations [2] - The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for Q3 showed an annualized quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.2%, down from 2.8% in Q2, but still above market expectations [2] - The U.S. GDP for Q3 was reported at an annualized quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.8%, slightly below market expectations, with consumer spending being the primary driver, increasing by 3.7% [2] - The report indicates a mixed economic outlook for the U.S., with unexpected declines in economic growth and employment, while consumer spending remains robust [2]