GUJING(000596) Guolian Securities·2024-11-03 09:11Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in performance with a total revenue of 5.263 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.174 billion yuan, up 13.60% year-on-year [2][6]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 77.87%, a decrease of 1.55 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to adjustments in product structure [6]. - The company has shown strong channel operation capabilities, with products like Gu 8 and Gu 16 driving growth despite concerns about high inventory levels in provincial channels [6]. - The management's respect for market rules and leading channel operation capabilities support the "Buy" rating [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 19.069 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 19.53%, and a net profit of 4.746 billion yuan, up 24.49% year-on-year [6]. - The sales cash collection in Q3 2024 was 5.460 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 24.58%, indicating resilience in the company's financial statements [6]. - The company expects revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 23.701 billion yuan, 26.541 billion yuan, and 29.248 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.02%, 11.98%, and 10.20% [6][7]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 18, 16, and 14 respectively [6][7]. - The estimated EBITDA for 2024 is 8.778 billion yuan, with a corresponding EV/EBITDA ratio of 9.3 [7]. Market Position - The company is positioned in the food and beverage industry, specifically in the liquor sector, with a market capitalization of approximately 76.126 billion yuan [4][6]. - The company’s channel operation strategy, including a shift from channel expenses to consumer incentives, is expected to enhance its market presence [6].