WLY(000858) 国联证券·2024-11-03 09:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wuliangye (000858) [4] Core Views - Wuliangye achieved operating revenue of 172.68 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.39%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 58.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.34%, slightly below expectations [2][6] - The company announced a cash dividend policy for 2024-2026, with annual cash dividends not less than 70% of net profit attributable to shareholders and not less than 20 billion yuan (including tax), which is expected to boost market confidence [2][6] - The gross profit margin in Q3 2024 increased by 2.77 percentage points year-on-year to 76.17%, while the net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 34.02%, a slight decrease of 0.02 percentage points [6] - The company's sales cash inflow in Q3 2024 was 282.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.70%, faster than the revenue growth, likely due to the maturity of bank acceptance bills during the Spring Festival peak season [6] Financial Performance and Forecast - For the first three quarters of 2024, Wuliangye achieved operating revenue of 679.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.60%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 249.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.19% [6] - The report forecasts that Wuliangye's operating revenue for 2024-2026 will be 891.03 billion yuan, 936.08 billion yuan, and 982.97 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.00%, 5.06%, and 5.01%, respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is expected to be 326.09 billion yuan, 342.66 billion yuan, and 364.96 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.94%, 5.08%, and 6.51%, respectively [6] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 18X, 17X, and 16X, respectively [6] Industry and Market Position - Wuliangye is positioned as a leading player in the strong aroma liquor segment, with strong resilience in the thousand-yuan price range [2][6] - The company's new products, such as 1618 and low-alcohol variants, are expected to drive incremental growth [2][6] - The liquor industry is facing weak demand, but Wuliangye's market position and product strategy are expected to support stable growth [6]