行业研究——周报：原油周报：市场关注重点回归供需基本面，油价震荡下跌

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil industry [1]. Core Insights - The recent decline in international oil prices has shifted market focus back to the supply-demand fundamentals of crude oil. Despite this, unexpected decreases in U.S. gasoline and crude oil inventories, along with reports that OPEC+ may delay its December production increase plans, have led to a partial rebound in oil prices [1][8]. - The report emphasizes that the current oil price cycle is fundamentally driven by supply-side factors, with some oil-producing countries shifting from a market share competition strategy to a price-supporting strategy. The U.S. oil production faces limitations due to resource degradation and rising costs, while OPEC+ maintains a strong commitment to high oil prices [9][10]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of November 1, 2024, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were $73.10 and $69.49 per barrel, respectively, reflecting declines of 3.88% and 3.19% from the previous week [15]. Oil Price Outlook - The report forecasts that global oil demand is expected to continue growing from 2024 to 2026, while supply capabilities will struggle to meet this demand increase, suggesting that oil prices may remain at mid-to-high levels in the medium to long term [9][10]. U.S. Oil Supply and Demand - As of October 25, 2024, U.S. crude oil production was stable at 13.5 million barrels per day, with a slight decrease in the number of active drilling rigs [1][2]. - U.S. refinery crude oil processing averaged 16.05 million barrels per day, down by 31,000 barrels per day from the previous week [1]. Oil Inventory - As of October 25, 2024, total U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 674,000 barrels to 811 million barrels, with strategic reserves also rising [1][2]. Performance of Oil and Petrochemical Sector - The oil and petrochemical sector saw a decline of 1.90% as of November 1, 2024, while the oil service engineering sector increased by 0.36% [11][12]. Key Companies - Notable companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina, with varying stock performances reported [2][13][14].