美联储货币政策系列：联储缩表，从哪里来，到哪里去？

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Actions - The Federal Reserve continues to reduce its balance sheet following the interest rate cut in September, with monthly Treasury bond reductions set at $25 billion[1] - The total assets of the Federal Reserve have decreased by over$1.9 trillion since the start of the current tightening cycle in June 2022[9] - The Fed's balance sheet normalization is nearing completion, with expectations to end the current round of balance sheet reduction by Q2 2025[3] Group 2: Historical Context and Framework Changes - The transition from a limited reserve framework to an ample reserve framework occurred post-2008 financial crisis, leading to significant changes in monetary policy tools[18] - Quantitative Easing (QE) led to a 70% increase in the Fed's asset scale, rising by approximately $4.8 trillion in just two years[9] - The Fed's balance sheet expansion during the pandemic resulted in a peak asset size that was 3.7 times larger than pre-crisis levels, exceeding 25% of GDP[21] Group 3: Risks and Future Considerations - Current liquidity indicators show tightening conditions, with potential risks of increased short-term interest rate volatility due to high Treasury General Account (TGA) levels and reduced reverse repurchase agreements (RRP)[3] - The Fed's approach to balance sheet reduction is cautious, aiming to avoid a repeat of the 2019 liquidity crisis, which was triggered by rapid balance sheet reduction[2] - The ideal size of the Fed's balance sheet is still under evaluation, with a focus on maintaining sufficient reserves to meet market liquidity needs[39]