上市券商2024Q3业绩综述：投资业绩弹性有限，综合性龙头优势突出

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The overall net profit of listed securities firms in the first three quarters of 2024 met expectations, but investment performance is limited due to reduced directional exposure in equities. The rotation of market conditions reaffirms the advantages of comprehensive leading firms, suggesting an overweight position on top-tier securities firms with merger expectations [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - In the first three quarters of 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed securities firms decreased by 5.93% year-on-year, totaling 103.45 billion yuan. The decline in profit is primarily due to a 6.13% year-on-year drop in adjusted revenue, which amounted to 299.56 billion yuan. The net profit margin slightly increased by 0.07 percentage points to 34.53% [7][8][11] 2. Driving Factors - The overall performance of various business segments faced pressure, with only investment performance supporting the overall results. Investment business revenue increased by 24.35% year-on-year to 110.93 billion yuan, contributing 138.21% to the change in adjusted revenue. Other segments, including brokerage, investment banking, asset management, and credit business, faced declines [11][19][20] 3. Competitive Landscape - The concentration of the industry has strengthened, with the top five listed securities firms accounting for 48.55% of the total net profit, an increase of 5.24 percentage points year-on-year. Leading firms with strong comprehensive capabilities are better positioned to navigate market style rotations [25][27] 4. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to overweight top-tier securities firms with merger and restructuring expectations, specifically highlighting China Galaxy and CITIC Securities as potential investment opportunities [2][3][29]