轻工制造行业定期报告：补贴推进&10月地产改善，家居上行逻辑依然健康

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [4]. Core Views - The report expresses optimism about the cyclical recovery trend in the home furnishing sector, driven by ongoing subsidies and improvements in real estate transactions in October [2][3]. - It highlights the potential for demand recovery in the paper industry as economic expectations improve, suggesting a positive outlook for various paper products [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Home Furnishing - As of October 24, approximately 6.3 million home renovation subsidy products have been sold, generating sales of 19 billion yuan [3]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reported a 0.9% year-on-year increase in new home sales in October, marking the first growth after eight months of decline [3]. - The report suggests that concerns regarding the home furnishing sector's performance have been addressed, and marginal improvements are expected to drive stock price recoveries [3]. - Key companies to watch include leading custom furniture brands such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhijia Home [3]. 2. Paper Industry - As of November 1, 2024, prices for various paper products are as follows: double glue paper at 5,125 yuan/ton (down 37.5 yuan), copper plate paper at 5,380 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and box board paper at 3,615.4 yuan/ton (up 7.2 yuan) [4][43]. - Major paper companies have announced price increases and maintenance shutdowns, indicating a potential improvement in industry profitability [4]. - Recommended companies include Sun Paper, Huawang Technology, and Xianhe Co., which are focusing on integrated operations and expanding their product lines [4][7]. 3. Consumer Goods - The report notes strong quarterly performance from companies like Baiya Co. and Dengkang Oral Care, with revenue growth of 51% and 2% respectively in Q3 [7]. - It emphasizes the importance of domestic consumption recovery and suggests monitoring companies with strong brand positioning and growth potential [7]. 4. Export Chain - The report highlights a mixed performance among companies in the export sector, with some achieving significant revenue growth while others face challenges due to currency fluctuations and shipping costs [7]. - Companies to watch include Jia Yi Co. and Jiangxin Home, which are expected to benefit from recovery in demand [7]. 5. Packaging - The report discusses ongoing anti-dumping investigations by the U.S. against certain products from China and Vietnam, which may impact companies like Zhongxin Environmental Protection [8]. - It suggests that the packaging sector could benefit from a rebound in consumer electronics demand [8].