2024年化妆品板块三季报总结：分化加速，把握势能

Investment Rating - The report rates the cosmetics industry as "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The cosmetics sector experienced a slight revenue increase year-on-year in Q3 2024, but profits declined, indicating a growing divergence among brands. Strong brands continue to show high growth potential, particularly domestic brands [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - In Q3 2024, the cosmetics retail sales decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, reflecting a seasonal downturn. The overall retail sales for cosmetics from January to September 2024 showed a decline of 1%, which is 4.3 percentage points lower than the overall retail growth rate [7][8] 2. Q3 Financial Reports - The overall performance of the cosmetics sector was weak, with Q3 revenue slightly increasing by 0.5% year-on-year to 10.2 billion, while net profit fell by 24% to 800 million. For the first three quarters of 2024, the sector achieved revenues of 34.9 billion and net profits of 3.9 billion, reflecting year-on-year increases of 5.6% and 4.26% respectively [9][10] 3. Fund Holdings - The average holding ratio of domestic institutions in A-share cosmetics companies decreased to 5.99% in Q3 2024, down 3.59 percentage points from the previous quarter. In contrast, the holding ratio in Hong Kong stocks increased, particularly for companies like Giant Biological and Shumei [17][19] 4. Industry Valuation - The PE valuation for the cosmetics sector in 2024 is generally between 25-30x, with some small and mid-cap companies showing growth premiums. The report suggests that the current configuration of the sector presents significant investment value, especially with expected growth rates of 20-30% for many companies [21]