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以旧换新专题梳理:以旧换新:家居与两轮车蓄势待发
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-11-03 10:11

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the home appliance subsidy has shown significant results, and the policies for home furnishings and two-wheeled vehicles are expected to drive industry growth, with leading companies' valuations and performance elasticity being promising [3][5]. Summary by Sections Home Appliance and U.S. Consumption Stimulus Review - The previous home appliance replacement policy cycle from 2007 to 2023 included initiatives like "Home Appliances Going to the Countryside," "Energy-Saving Benefits for the People," and "Old for New," which collectively boosted domestic appliance consumption [8]. - The report notes that the core categories of home appliances saw significant growth in sales volume during the last policy cycle, with air conditioners and refrigerators experiencing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% from 2008 to 2013 [9]. Home Furnishings and Two-Wheeled Vehicles Replacement - The current home furnishings and two-wheeled vehicle replacement policy involves a total funding of approximately 1,500 billion yuan, aimed at various sectors including home appliances and electric bicycles [13][14]. - The report estimates that the replacement subsidies could drive terminal sales of 1,905 billion yuan for home furnishings and 952 billion yuan for two-wheeled vehicles, corresponding to a 27% and 26% increase in terminal sales scale for 2023 [16][17]. Home Furnishings: Margin of Safety and Performance Improvement Expectations - The report indicates that the valuation recovery in the home furnishings sector is closely linked to real estate policies, with historical data showing a strong correlation between new construction starts and valuation trends [20][22]. - The report emphasizes that the home furnishings sector has seen a significant improvement in terminal sales since the implementation of the replacement policy, with a notable increase in retail sales growth [16][28]. Two-Wheeled Vehicles: Policy Resonance and Supply-Demand Optimization - The two-wheeled vehicle sector is expected to benefit from the new national standards and replacement policies in 2025, which will enhance terminal demand and optimize market structure [5][20]. - The report suggests that leading brands in the two-wheeled vehicle market are well-prepared to capitalize on the anticipated industry recovery [5][20].