锦江酒店：Revpar承压，期待改革效能释放

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 10.79 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.11 billion yuan, an increase of 12.1% year-on-year. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 640 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4% [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 260 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.1% [1]. - The domestic hotel business faced pressure, with RevPAR in the Chinese region declining by 8.4% year-on-year, while overseas operations showed marginal improvement [1]. - The company opened a total of 1,149 hotels in the first three quarters, achieving 96% of its annual target of 1,200 new openings [2]. - The Q3 gross profit margin was 43.4%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by the decline in RevPAR [2]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 1.26 billion, 1.23 billion, and 1.49 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 23x, 23x, and 19x [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 14.65 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 29.53%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 15.87 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 8.30% [4]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 1.00 billion yuan, with a staggering growth rate of 691.14%. The forecast for 2024 is 1.26 billion yuan, with a profit growth rate of 26.20% [4]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 41.99% in 2023, slightly decreasing to 40.58% in 2024 [4]. Operational Insights - The company is actively pursuing internal organizational reforms to enhance efficiency and performance, which is expected to support future growth targets [2]. - The company has implemented a "12+3+1" brand strategy, with a focus on expanding its mid-range hotel offerings, which accounted for 69% of new openings in Q3 [2].