上市银行三季报业绩综述：盈利增速改善，奠定全年根基

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The profitability growth of listed banks improved in Q3 2024, slightly exceeding expectations, primarily driven by the increase in non-interest income and asset scale growth [1][5] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed banks grew by 1.4% year-on-year, with revenue declining by 1.0%, but the decline rate has narrowed compared to the first half of 2024 [1][5] - The asset scale growth rate in Q3 2024 exceeded expectations, mainly due to the increase in financial investment scale, supported by a higher issuance of government bonds [1][2] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The overall performance of listed banks in Q3 2024 showed a slight improvement, with net profit growth of 1.4% year-on-year and revenue decline of 1.0%, which is an improvement from the previous half [1] - The growth in profitability was supported by a 8.2% increase in asset scale, while net interest margin negatively impacted profitability growth by 11.4% [1][5] Asset and Liability Growth - The total liabilities, deposits, and interbank liabilities of listed banks grew by 8.2%, 4.3%, and 28.8% year-on-year, respectively, with a notable increase in interbank liabilities due to significant inflows into state-owned banks [2] - The asset scale growth for different types of banks varied, with state-owned banks showing the highest growth rate of 9.0% year-on-year [2][5] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income growth improved in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, driven by a narrowing decline in commission income and significant growth in other non-interest income [5] - The contribution of investment income to non-interest income was substantial, accounting for 69% of the total [5] Retail Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.25%, but the attention rate increased, indicating ongoing risks in small and micro enterprises and weaker regional economies [5] - The NPL generation rate increased to 0.72%, with state-owned banks showing better resilience compared to others [5] Investment Recommendations - For 2024, the forecast for listed banks indicates a revenue decline of 1.6% and a net profit growth of 0.9%, with expectations of stable interest income growth and a potential decrease in credit costs supporting profitability [5] - The report recommends focusing on undervalued banks benefiting from risk resolution in real estate and local government financing, as well as those positioned to gain from declining risk-free interest rates [5]