CRCC(601186) 国投证券·2024-11-03 10:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 12-month target price of 10.56 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 9.21 CNY [4][6][9]. Core Views - The company has experienced revenue pressure with a year-on-year decline of 5.99% in the first three quarters of 2024, achieving a total revenue of 758.125 billion CNY. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19.18% to 15.695 billion CNY during the same period [1][2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its business structure and has seen a significant reduction in new contract orders, particularly in investment operations, which dropped by 65.6% year-on-year. However, emerging business areas such as mining and water conservancy projects have shown substantial growth [2][4]. - The overall gross margin remained stable at 9.16%, with a slight decrease in the third quarter. The financial expense ratio increased due to higher financial costs, while operating cash flow improved significantly in Q3, narrowing the cash outflow compared to the previous year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 758.125 billion CNY, down 5.99% year-on-year. Quarterly revenues showed a trend of +0.52% in Q1, -9.84% in Q2, and -8.82% in Q3 [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 15.695 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 19.18% [1][2]. Contract and Business Structure - The company signed new contracts worth 14,734.27 billion CNY in the first three quarters, a decrease of 17.51% year-on-year. The new contracts in engineering and investment operations fell by 13.84% and 65.6%, respectively [2][4]. - Emerging business sectors, such as mining and water conservancy, saw contract growth of 307.61% and 38.58%, indicating a shift towards more profitable areas [2][4]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin for the third quarter was 9.24%, with a net profit margin of 2.07%, both showing declines compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was -89.018 billion CNY, an improvement from -43.183 billion CNY in the same period last year. The cash outflow in Q3 was significantly reduced to -7.342 billion CNY from -23.840 billion CNY [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have revenues of 1,115.23 billion CNY, 1,193.30 billion CNY, and 1,264.90 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -2.0%, 7.0%, and 6.0% [4][6]. - The net profit forecasts for the same years are 24.05 billion CNY, 26.05 billion CNY, and 28.08 billion CNY, with corresponding year-on-year changes of -7.9%, +8.3%, and +7.8% [6][7].