钢铁行业周报：政策方向确认，钢铁基本面稳固，仍具备继续反弹基础

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Follow the Market" rating for the steel industry, indicating a stable outlook amidst current market conditions [4]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a weak performance in the black series market, with domestic policy expectations generally positive, but macroeconomic uncertainties from the US elections and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions causing fluctuations [2][11]. - Steel production and consumption are showing signs of stabilization, with a slight increase in blast furnace operating rates and a decrease in electric furnace rates, leading to a daily average pig iron output of 2.355 million tons, down by 0.2 thousand tons [2][11]. - The report highlights a decline in steel inventory to 1,234.9 thousand tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.94% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.13%, primarily due to increased environmental pressures in northern regions and cautious production by steel mills [2][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - The steel sector is expected to enter a phase of strong expectations and weak realities in Q4, with significant declines and many stocks trading below book value, suggesting potential investment opportunities [3][15]. 2. Weekly Review - The steel industry outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, with a 4.65% increase compared to a 1.68% decrease in the index [16]. - The current PE (TTM) for the steel industry is 25.10 times, and the PB (LF) is 0.97 times, indicating a mid-level valuation among industries [16]. 3. Recent Events - Domestic policies are focusing on renewable energy and economic recovery, with the manufacturing PMI returning to expansion territory at 50.1% [25][27]. - The report notes that the profitability of large industrial enterprises has declined, but new industrial dynamics are showing resilience, suggesting a potential recovery in industrial efficiency [26][27]. 4. Steel and Product Production - The report indicates a slight decrease in the production of major steel products, with total output at 8.673 million tons, down 1.51% week-on-week and 4.76% year-on-year [2][11]. 5. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 26.31 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while port inventories remain high at 154.2 million tons, up 36.5% year-on-year [13][25]. 6. Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The operating rate of coking coal mines is reported at 88.24%, with a slight decrease week-on-week, while coking coal inventories have increased by 16.14% year-on-year [13][25]. 7. Coking Coal Inventory - Coking coal inventory levels are stable, with a total of 2.562 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.06% [13][25]. 8. Market Outlook - The report anticipates limited short-term supply increases due to environmental restrictions and cautious production by steel mills, while demand is expected to remain under pressure as consumption declines [14][25].