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贺岁电影陆续定档,看好2025年大盘预期改善
AVIC Securities·2024-11-03 12:35

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [34]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the film market is under pressure in 2024 due to limited new film supply and market sentiment, but anticipates a recovery in the 2025 Spring Festival box office driven by an increase in quality film supply and supportive national policies [15][23]. - The introduction of new fertility support policies is expected to benefit the maternal and infant care and education sectors, as these measures aim to alleviate economic burdens and improve the overall fertility rate in society [23][24]. Summary by Sections Market Review (2024.10.28-2024.11.01) - The social services sector index increased by 2.65%, ranking 4th among 31 first-level industries [10][12]. - The performance of sub-industries includes Education (16.34%), Sports II (3.47%), and Hotel & Catering (3.22%), while Professional Services saw a decline of -0.63% [14]. - Top-performing stocks in the sector included Dou Shen Education (130.63%) and *ST Kaiyuan (75.16%), while stocks like Kede Education (-13.73%) and Zero Point Data (-12.17%) underperformed [14]. Core Viewpoints - Investment Theme One: The 2024 box office is nearing its end, with intense competition expected for the 2025 Spring Festival. Major films have begun to be scheduled for release, including "Feng Shen II: War Fire West Qi" and "Boonie Bears: Rebooting the Future" [15][16]. - Investment Theme Two: The new fertility support policies are anticipated to positively impact the maternal and infant care and education sectors, as they address key concerns regarding economic burdens and child-rearing [23][24]. Industry News Dynamics - The report discusses the increasing importance of shopping tourism and the need for integrated regulatory measures in the restaurant industry to enhance operational efficiency and consumer experience [28][29].