英大证券：金点策略晨报—每日报告-20241103

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a rebound after a period of adjustment, supported by economic data and liquidity release, indicating a potential upward trend in a volatile range [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3268.11 points, up 0.20%, while the Shenzhen Component rose 1.09% to 10470.91 points, reflecting a positive market sentiment with a total trading volume of 21840 billion [2][4] - The semiconductor sector continues to show strong performance, driven by global demand and local policy support, with expectations of a 16% growth in the global semiconductor market in 2024 [2][3] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector is expected to benefit from various national policies aimed at boosting local production, with significant investments from the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, which has a registered capital of 344 billion RMB [2][3] - The global semiconductor market is projected to reach 611 billion USD in 2024, with a further increase to 687 billion USD by 2025, indicating a new growth cycle for the industry [2][3] - The trend of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry is becoming irreversible, with expectations for increased market share in upstream equipment [3] Aerospace and Defense Sector - The aerospace and defense sector is experiencing significant growth, supported by government policies aimed at modernizing military equipment and enhancing defense technology [3][4] - China's defense budget has shown consistent growth from 6.6% to 7.2% from 2020 to 2024, indicating strong government support for the military industry [3] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are potential catalysts for further growth in the defense sector [3] Electronics Sector - The consumer electronics sector is poised for growth, with IDC raising its forecast for smartphone deliveries in 2024 by 5.8% to 1.23 billion units, driven by advancements in AI and 5G technologies [3][4] - The rapid development of AI and IoT technologies is expected to create new opportunities in the consumer electronics market, leading to a wave of product upgrades [3][4] - The sector is likely to benefit from a new wave of consumer demand as AI integration becomes more prevalent in electronic devices [3] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, with a focus on sectors sensitive to liquidity such as finance and real estate [5][6] - The anticipated reduction in loan rates due to monetary policy easing is expected to stimulate economic growth and support market stability [4][7] - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of buying low and selling high, particularly in sectors with strong fundamentals and growth potential [5][6]