专题：美国大选的影响

Group 1: Economic Policies Comparison - Trump's "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) focuses on revitalizing manufacturing, reducing foreign dependence, and stimulating the economy through tax cuts and deregulation[2] - Harris's "Opportunity Economy" aims to expand the middle class and alleviate income inequality through progressive tax reforms and support for small businesses[2] - Trump's proposed corporate tax cut from 21% to 15% is expected to boost short-term economic activity, while Harris's policies may lead to a gradual reduction in national debt[3][10] Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rates - If tariffs on Chinese goods rise to 60%, it could increase U.S. inflation by at least 0.6 percentage points, assuming 25% of the cost is passed to consumers[3][22] - Trump's policies may lead to lower real interest rates due to his preference for low rates and potential influence over the Federal Reserve[5][22] - The projected increase in U.S. debt under Harris's plan is estimated at $3.95 trillion over the next decade, while Trump's policies could lead to a $7.75 trillion increase[10] Group 3: Impact on China - A 60% tariff on imports from China could reduce U.S. imports by $260 billion, impacting approximately 1.46% of China's GDP and 7.6% of its total exports in 2023[4][25] - China's exports to ASEAN and the Asia-Pacific region are expected to rise, mitigating some pressure from U.S. tariffs[4][26] - Trump's administration may increase geopolitical tensions with China, leading to more stringent technology sanctions and impacting Chinese industries[23][26] Group 4: Asset Prices and Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar may strengthen in the short term due to reduced Fed rate cut expectations, but long-term prospects are weaker due to Trump's inflationary policies[5][28] - U.S. stock markets are likely to benefit from Trump's tax cuts and low interest rates, which could enhance corporate profitability[5][28] - Gold prices may rise as Trump's policies weaken the dollar's credibility and lower real interest rates, which are inversely related to gold prices[5][28]