煤炭行业周报：中电联预计全社会用电量增速7%，煤炭需求韧性持续超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1]. Core Insights - The China Electricity Council (CEC) forecasts a 7% year-on-year growth in national electricity consumption for 2024, indicating strong resilience in demand for coal [1]. - Emerging economies are expected to continue relying heavily on coal for electricity generation, with Southeast Asia's energy demand remaining robust despite slower clean energy adoption [1]. - The report highlights that domestic coal demand may improve due to a combination of policy support and a recovery in manufacturing and real estate sectors [1]. Summary by Sections Electricity Demand Forecast - CEC predicts a 7% increase in national electricity consumption for 2024, up from 6.7% in 2023 [1]. - The manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery, with the PMI index reaching 50.1% [1]. Coal Price Trends - The report notes that coal prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with a current price of 848 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 7 yuan [1]. - The report anticipates that the upcoming heating season will drive demand, limiting the potential for significant price declines [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on cyclical trading opportunities in coking coal, recommending companies such as Huabei Mining and Pingmei Shenma Group [1]. - It also emphasizes the stability of the thermal coal sector's performance, recommending companies like China Coal Energy, Shenhua Group, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [1]. - Additionally, it highlights investment opportunities in coal machinery companies benefiting from safety and smart upgrades, as well as the Belt and Road Initiative [1].