HAIER SMART HOME(SH:600690) Haitong Securities·2024-11-03 13:19Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haier Smart Home is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - Haier Smart Home reported a revenue growth of 2% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 15% for the first three quarters of 2024, achieving a revenue of 202.97 billion yuan and a net profit of 15.15 billion yuan [6] - The company is expected to benefit from domestic demand driven by government subsidies in Q4 2024, while also expanding its market share in Europe and the US [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.03 yuan, 2.31 yuan, and 2.60 yuan respectively, with expected growth rates of 15.0%, 13.6%, and 12.7% [7][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Haier Smart Home achieved a revenue of 67.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.47%, and a net profit of 4.73 billion yuan, up 13.15% year-on-year [6] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 30.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [6] Market Position - In Q3 2024, Haier held a market share of 44.2% in refrigerators, 47.2% in washing machines, and over 20% in the offline air conditioning market, solidifying its position as a leading brand [7] - The "Three Wings Bird" channel achieved retail sales of 8.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a growth of 10% year-on-year [7] Valuation and Forecast - The estimated revenue for 2024 is 275.67 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 19.09 billion yuan [10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is estimated to be between 15-18 times, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 30.45 to 36.54 yuan per share [7]