【粤开宏观】美国大选前夜：“特朗普2.0”VS“哈里斯意外”

Policy Comparison - Both Trump and Harris propose tax cuts, with Trump potentially reducing taxes by $11.9 trillion and Harris by $5 trillion over the next decade (2026-2035) according to CRFB[3] - Both candidates aim to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., with Trump focusing on supply chain control and Harris promoting investment in emerging technologies[3] - Both candidates plan to expand housing supply, with Trump opening federal land for new construction and Harris providing tax credits for housing development[3] Election Analysis - As of November 2, Trump leads Harris in national polls with 48.4% to 48.1%[6] - Trump has a 54.7% betting win probability, leading Harris by 10.6 percentage points, although this advantage is narrowing[6] - Trump is leading in five key swing states, potentially securing 287 electoral votes[6] Market Implications - The market is betting on a "Trump trade," with the dollar index rising 3.1% and Bitcoin increasing by 20.5% from October 1 to November 1[7] - If Harris wins, a market correction may occur, impacting the dollar, stocks, and cryptocurrencies negatively while benefiting U.S. Treasuries and renewable energy sectors[7] Impact on China - Trump's victory could lead to increased tariffs on Chinese goods, potentially reducing China's GDP by 0.25% to 0.85% depending on the tariff level[9] - Harris's policies are expected to have a milder impact on Chinese exports, maintaining the status quo on tariffs[9] - Regardless of the winner, both candidates are likely to continue the trend of increasing technological restrictions on China[9]