产业经济周观点：关注中国全球化路径调整，看好一带一路央国企

Group 1 - Recent economic data indicates strong performance in China's midstream manufacturing and resilience in the US economy [1][12] - The trend of economic expansion in China is likely to be established, with mild recovery corresponding to small external shocks and strong stimulus in response to significant external shocks [1][12] - The adjustment of China's globalization path is expected to shift from price advantages to sustainable domestic demand expansion and accelerated Belt and Road cooperation [1][15] Group 2 - The report suggests a mid-term strategy to increase allocation to Belt and Road-related central state-owned enterprises, while also monitoring the potential restart of the debt cycle [1][15] - Long-term core asset styles are favored, particularly in semiconductor equipment, packaging and thermal management, military industry, automotive lithium batteries, renewable energy exports, and gold [1][15] Group 3 - Industrial enterprise profit growth has significantly declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 27.1% in September, largely due to price and profit margin pressures [10] - Midstream manufacturing has shown strong performance, benefiting from relatively stable prices and less deterioration in profit margins compared to other sectors [10][11] - The manufacturing PMI for October indicates a potential improvement in prices, suggesting a recovery in industrial enterprise pricing [12][15] Group 4 - The US core PCE inflation remains sticky, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in September, indicating resilience in the US economy [15][20] - Actual consumption in the US shows strength, particularly in core services, contrasting with weaker growth in core goods consumption [15][20] Group 5 - The market has shown significant differentiation, with the STAR 50 index leading gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index has declined by 1.7% [23] - The trading characteristics indicate a preference for small-cap growth stocks, with high beta and heavily financed companies leading the market [23][26]