化工行业周报：2024年10月第5周

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [2][5]. Core Viewpoints - As the U.S. elections approach and the Middle East situation stabilizes, market expectations for oil supply and demand have turned pessimistic, leading to a weak outlook for the petrochemical industry. The report favors leading companies with strong alpha that are less correlated with oil prices. Additionally, the increasing global instability has heightened the importance of food security, making the demand in the agriculture and food supply chain more rigid, which supports the sustainability and upward elasticity of the supply-side structure [5][11]. Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Prices - As of November 3, Brent oil prices fell by 3.9% to $73.10 per barrel. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased, coupled with concerns about demand outlook, contributing to the price drop. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased to 425.5 million barrels, down 500,000 barrels week-on-week [12]. - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (up 8.6%), natural gas (up 4.9%), and BDO solution (up 3.7%). The largest declines were in liquid chlorine (down 44.2%), vitamin A (down 19.4%), and vitamin B2 (down 8.7%) [3][13]. Price Spread Changes - The top three products with the largest weekly price spread increases were the maleic anhydride BDO spread (up 246.6%), styrene (up 85.9%), and hydrofluoric acid spread (up 38.1%). The largest declines were in hydrogen peroxide spread (down 3100.0%), butyl acrylate spread (down 34.4%), and PTMEG spread (down 29.1%) [4][15]. - Monthly, the top three products with the largest price spread increases were styrene (up 199.3%), maleic anhydride BDO spread (up 120.9%), and calcium carbide BDO spread (up 99.5%) [16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) due to recent profit improvements in its core product MDI and upcoming production from petrochemical and new material projects. The acquisition of Covestro by ADNOC is expected to reshape the industry landscape [5][11]. - It also recommends Huamao Technology (603181, Buy) as a leading special polyether company that has re-entered a growth phase after addressing previous macro demand pressures [5][11]. - Jinhe Industrial (002597, Buy) is highlighted as a leader in maltol and sucralose, with signs of marginal changes at the bottom of its main product cycle [5][11]. - Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) is suggested for attention as a leading company in the domestic phosphate chemical industry, with sustainable phosphate ore market conditions and potential for increased dividends [5][11].