HONGLU(002541) Guolian Securities·2024-11-03 13:47Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 15.9 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6% [2][6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 660 million yuan, down 26% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 360 million yuan, down 49% year-on-year [2][6] - The slowdown in steel structure production growth is attributed to a large-scale intelligent transformation of production equipment, leading to a temporary decline in capacity utilization [6] - The company's steel structure profitability is under pressure due to intensified industry competition, resulting in price declines exceeding cost reductions [6] - The company expects revenue growth to recover in the coming years, with projected revenues of 22.8 billion, 25.2 billion, and 27.9 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, and a net profit of 230 million yuan, down 32% year-on-year [2][6] - The average capacity utilization rate for the first three quarters of 2024 is estimated at 86.7%, a decrease of 5% year-on-year [6] - The company signed new contracts worth 21.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, with Q3 new contracts amounting to 7.6 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year [6] - The gross profit per ton of steel structure was 447 yuan in Q3 2024, down 196 yuan year-on-year, while the net profit per ton was 172 yuan, down 106 yuan year-on-year [6] - The company’s operating cash flow improved in Q3 2024, with a net cash flow of 370 million yuan, an increase of 2.7 million yuan year-on-year [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its competitive advantages and growth prospects, with a projected EPS of 1.48, 1.65, and 1.82 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] - The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 8.6 times for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation [6]