煤炭开采行业周报：平煤股份打响回购第一枪，板块蓄力“等风来”

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [1]. Core Views - The coal mining sector is expected to experience limited price adjustment space for thermal coal, with a bullish outlook for the future due to various supportive factors [2][19]. - The report highlights a shift in market sentiment from "weak reality, strong expectations" to "strong reality, strong expectations," indicating a potential price increase for coking coal [2][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The CITIC coal index closed at 3,715.90 points, down 0.69%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.99 percentage points [2]. - Thermal coal prices are stable but slightly declining, with the Qinhuangdao port price at 855 CNY/ton, down 3 CNY/ton week-on-week [19]. - Coking coal prices are under pressure, with the market transitioning to a stronger demand outlook [2][19]. Key Areas of Analysis - Thermal Coal: - Supply is slightly tightening, with most coal mines operating normally and production tasks being completed [9][19]. - Demand remains stable, primarily driven by regular procurement from end-users [9][19]. - Coking Coal: - The market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with supply remaining stable and demand primarily driven by necessity [2][19]. - The report notes that the coking coal market may see a shift towards stronger demand expectations [2][19]. - Coke: - The market is stable, with production increasing slightly and demand primarily driven by necessity [2][19]. - Profit margins for coke producers have improved, indicating a recovery in profitability [2][19]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies that are expected to benefit from the ongoing changes in the coal market, including China Shenhua, Shanxi Coal International, and Pingmei Shenma Energy [2][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of free cash flow and shareholder returns in the evolving investment landscape [2][39].