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国君交运周观察：三季报大航超预期，集运公司积极挺价
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-11-04 00:07

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation and oil transportation sectors, and also for container shipping companies [1][2]. Core Insights - The aviation sector shows strong performance with major airlines exceeding expectations in Q3, driven by improved business demand and revenue strategies. It is recommended to position for the off-season [2][3]. - In the oil transportation sector, there are expectations that OPEC+ may delay production increases, suggesting a cautious approach to peak season strategies [2][3]. - Container shipping volumes remain stable, with companies actively supporting pricing to aid long-term contract negotiations [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Aviation - Major airlines reported a 17% year-on-year decline in profits, yet exceeded Q3 2019 levels. Fleet turnover and passenger load factors improved, partially offsetting ticket price declines. The report anticipates a recovery in passenger load factors by 2024, with profitability expected to rise as supply and demand stabilize. Recommendations include maintaining "Overweight" ratings for China National Aviation, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines [3][4]. Oil Transportation - Recent data indicates a decline in domestic refinery operating rates, with the Middle East to China VLCC TCE dropping to approximately $30,000 per day. The report suggests a cautious approach to peak season expectations, with a focus on the potential for OPEC+ to delay production increases. Companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy are highlighted for their performance exceeding market expectations [3][4]. Container Shipping - Container shipping companies are actively supporting pricing, with recent increases in freight rates for European and American routes. The report notes that the idle rate for large vessels has increased by 0.5% over the past month, and companies are expected to continue price increases through the end of the year, depending on supply and demand dynamics [3][4].