铝行业周报：环保政策影响铝加工开工率，氧化铝维持强势

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum processing industry is experiencing a decline in operating rates due to environmental policies, while alumina prices remain strong [1] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is showing signs of weakening, and the operating rates in the aluminum processing sector are expected to decline further [14] - The alumina market is performing strongly, with tight supply conditions continuing to push prices higher [14] Summary by Sections Price - As of November 1, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $2,603.0 per ton, down $67.0 from the previous week, but up $356.0 year-on-year [21] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is 20,795.0 yuan per ton, up 35.0 yuan from the previous week, and up 1,580.0 yuan year-on-year [21][22] Production - The weekly production of electrolytic aluminum is 838,000 tons, up 2,000 tons from the previous week and up 14,000 tons year-on-year [41] - The weekly production of alumina is 1,617,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous week but up 47,000 tons year-on-year [41] Inventory - As of October 31, domestic aluminum rod social inventory is 114,200 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons from the previous week [8] - The report indicates that the aluminum processing sector is facing inventory fluctuations, with a need to monitor downstream consumption [8] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.12 for 2024 [4] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is also rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 0.91 for 2024 [4] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.16 for 2024 [4] - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 0.77 for 2024 [4] - Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 1.42 for 2024 [4]