Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industrial metals sector [10]. Core Views - The domestic manufacturing PMI has returned to the expansion zone at 50.1%, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing sector, while the U.S. non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations [3][43]. - Industrial metal prices are expected to show resilience due to improved domestic demand and the onset of a global easing cycle [3][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Industrial Metals - Copper: LME copper closed at $9,539/ton, down 0.26% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥76,520/ton, up 0.17%. Chile's Codelco reported a 4.9% year-on-year decline in copper production for the first nine months of 2024 [2][46]. - Aluminum: LME aluminum closed at $2,603/ton, down 2.51%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,795/ton, up 0.17%. The supply of bauxite remains tight, impacting production [4][48]. - Zinc: LME zinc closed at $3,066/ton, down 1.08%, and SHFE zinc at ¥24,865/ton, down 0.66%. Supply remains tight due to seasonal reductions in production [11]. - Tin: LME tin closed at $31,800/ton, up 1.27%, and SHFE tin at ¥255,870/ton, up 0.62%. Production remains stable despite regulatory constraints [12]. 2. Energy Metals - Lithium: Prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate and hydroxide are at ¥73,850/ton and ¥66,945/ton, respectively, with slight fluctuations observed [14]. - Pilbara: The company has lowered its production guidance for FY2025 due to operational disruptions [13]. 3. Precious Metals - Gold: COMEX gold closed at $2,745.9/oz, down 0.54%. The upcoming U.S. elections are contributing to fluctuations in gold prices, with strong demand from central banks [18]. 4. Market Performance - The industrial metals index increased by 0.85% this week, with notable stock performances from Zhenghai Magnetic Materials and Yunnan Tin [40].
有色金属行业周报：国内制造业PMI回暖，美国大选临近关注金属价格波动
Guotou Securities·2024-11-04 00:23