快递行业2024年三季报业绩综述：需求韧性足、“反内卷”下更利于业绩弹性释放，持续看好行业投资机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the express delivery industry, highlighting ongoing investment opportunities due to the industry's resilience and evolving competitive landscape [4][5]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry has shown strong demand resilience, with a business volume growth rate of 22% in the first three quarters of 2024, and a notable performance from Shentong Express, which led the growth at 30.8% [2][12]. - The average revenue per package has declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.2% to 8.05 yuan, although prices have stabilized month-on-month since August [2][20]. - The report emphasizes the positive financial performance of major companies, with SF Express achieving a record net profit in Q3 and Shentong Express showing a remarkable year-on-year profit increase of 195% [2][30]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The express delivery industry completed a business volume of 1,237.7 billion packages in the first three quarters, reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth. The total revenue reached 1 trillion yuan, up 14.1% [2][12]. - In Q3 alone, the industry handled 436.1 billion packages, marking a 20.1% increase, with revenues of 3,436.8 billion yuan, a 12.4% rise [2][11]. Performance Analysis - SF Express reported a net profit of 76.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a 21.6% increase, while Shentong Express's profit surged by 195% to 6.5 billion yuan [2][30]. - The report notes that the average revenue per package for the industry was 7.88 yuan in Q3, down 11.8% year-on-year, with Shentong showing the smallest decline among major players [2][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies like Zhongtong Express, which is expected to benefit from its market leadership and profitability, and recommends attention to YTO Express and Yunda Express as well [4][30]. - The report highlights the ongoing shift in competitive strategies among major companies, with a focus on service quality and operational efficiency, which is expected to enhance profitability in the long term [4][30].