恩捷股份：业绩符合预期，隔膜出货量稳步增加

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 revenue of 2.68 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 23.9% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 9.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 152 million yuan, down 79.6% year-over-year but up 14.7% quarter-over-quarter. The expected gross margin for Q3 is 21%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points, primarily due to price declines in the domestic market, and the performance met expectations [2][3] - The company's membrane shipment volume is steadily increasing, with an estimated 2 billion square meters shipped in Q3, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 30%, surpassing the industry growth rate. The domestic shipment ratio continues to rise due to increased domestic energy storage demand, while overseas market profitability remains stable [2] - The company is advancing its overseas capacity construction, with the first phase in Hungary completed and currently in the customer verification stage, expected to start supplying in Q4. The second phase plans to have a capacity of 800 million square meters across four production lines. Additionally, the company plans to invest in a lithium battery separator project in Malaysia with a planned capacity of 1 billion square meters per year, accelerating its capacity expansion strategy and enhancing its global industrial layout [2] - The company has a leading position in technology research and development and significant economies of scale. The net profit estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been adjusted to 600 million yuan, 1 billion yuan, and 1.4 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 57x, 30x, and 23x, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [2] Financial Summary - For 2023A, the company reported a revenue of 12.04 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 9.86 billion yuan for 2024E, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 18.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A was 2.53 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 597 million yuan for 2024E, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 76.4% [3][4] - The gross margin is expected to decline from 37.4% in 2023A to 21.4% in 2024E, with a gradual recovery projected in subsequent years [3][4] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to decrease from 9.4% in 2023A to 2.3% in 2024E, with a gradual increase expected in the following years [3][4]