天风证券：晨会集萃-20241104

Core Views - The core focus of the 24Q3 earnings report is the first negative CAPEX for the entire A-share non-financial sector in nearly 8 years, with a decline of 7.42% YoY in profits for the non-financial oil and petrochemical sector [1] - The overall profitability of A-shares (excluding financials) continued to weaken in 24Q3, aligning with the decline in profits of large-scale industrial enterprises, suggesting that the market may have already priced in this trend [1] - The financial and real estate construction sectors, especially non-bank financials, showed significant YoY profit growth, while manufacturing profits remained negative, indicating a bottoming-out phase [1] - The consumer sector is structurally divided, with necessities outperforming discretionary goods [1] - The "earnings surprise" portfolio includes 30 companies that experienced a significant stock price increase (over 5%) on the first trading day after their earnings announcements, with upward revisions in their 2024 net profit forecasts [1] Market Indicators and Trends - The stock-bond relative yield is at a high level, with a percentile of 98.10%, indicating strong equity allocation value [3] - Market valuations are moderate, with the overall A-share PE at 18.2, and most broad-based indices are near the 50th percentile in historical valuation terms [3] - Trading activity surged in October, with turnover rates reaching the highest levels since 2016, and trading volume as a percentage of previous highs at 100% [3] - Investor behavior shows a decline in buybacks and increased capital outflows, but overall funding flows are rising due to strong margin financing [3] Sector and Industry Analysis - The technology sector is recommended for November, with a focus on industries such as pharmaceuticals, real estate, and environmental protection [5] - The communication sector highlights Amazon, Meta, and Google's plans to increase capital expenditures in 2025, driven by investments in data centers and AI [20] - The real estate sector shows signs of stabilization, with potential for policy-driven recovery and increased market activity [23] - The automotive sector, particularly companies like Double Ring Transmission, is benefiting from technological advancements and global expansion [23] Earnings and Performance Updates - Amazon reported strong Q3 results with net sales of $158.9 billion, up 11$75 billion in 2024 [20] - Meta's Q3 revenue was $40.589 billion, up 19$38-40 billion in 2024, potentially increasing further in 2025 [20] - Double Ring Transmission reported a 10.7% YoY increase in Q3 revenue, driven by technological advancements and global expansion [23] - Yunlu Materials saw a 6.5% YoY increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, with new production lines contributing to growth [21] Investment Recommendations - The technology sector, particularly AI, overseas expansion, and satellite-related companies, is recommended for long-term investment [20] - The real estate sector is poised for recovery, with a focus on non-state-owned enterprises and regional players benefiting from policy support [23] - The automotive sector, especially companies involved in new energy vehicles and global supply chains, is expected to see continued growth [23]