中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴志锋：深度综述与拆分｜42家上市银行三季报：增速边际小幅提高、息差降幅收窄、资产质量平稳-20241104

Core Insights - The report highlights a marginal improvement in revenue and profit growth for 42 listed banks in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 1.5%, an improvement from a 2.2% decline in H1 2024, driven by stabilized interest margins and increased non-interest income [2][3] - Profit growth for the banking sector increased by 1.4% year-on-year, up from 0.4% in H1 2024, with state-owned banks showing improved contributions from revenue, costs, provisions, and taxes [2][3] - The report indicates that asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) generation rate of 0.66% and an NPL ratio of 1.25%, maintaining historical lows since 2014 [2][3] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Revenue for the banking sector showed a year-on-year decline of 1.5%, with large banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks experiencing declines of 1.8%, 2.6%, 4.1%, and 2.1% respectively [2] - Profit growth varied across bank types, with large banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks growing by 0.8%, 0.9%, 6.8%, and 4.9% respectively [2] - Notable high-growth banks include Jiangsu, Qingdao, Changshu, and Ruifeng, with net profit growth exceeding 10% and revenue growth above 5% [2] Interest Income and Non-Interest Income - Net interest income declined by 3.2% year-on-year, but the decline rate has narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, with interest-earning assets growing by 8.4% year-on-year [2] - The net interest margin decreased by 19 basis points year-on-year, showing a slight improvement from a 21 basis point decline in H1 2024 [2] - Non-interest income increased by 4% year-on-year, with fee income declining by 10.8% but showing a reduced decline compared to H1 2024 [2] Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - The report notes a stable asset quality with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.25% and a provision coverage ratio of 242.87% [2] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio for the banking sector increased by 15 basis points to 11.5% in Q3 2024 [2] - Risk-weighted asset growth slowed to 3.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 7.6 percentage points compared to Q3 2023 [2] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a potential improvement in loan growth in Q4 2024, driven by increased government bond issuance and signs of recovery in the real estate market [2] - Interest margins are expected to stabilize in Q4, although pressure may persist into 2025 due to overall downward trends in asset pricing [2] - Fee income may see an uptick in Q4 due to increased activity in the capital markets, although the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain [2]