美国就业系列七：新增就业仅1.2万，11月降息概率上升

Employment Data - In October 2024, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by only 12,000, significantly below the expected 100,000, with August and September's employment figures revised down by 112,000[1] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% in October, indicating a stable overall employment market[4] - The total employment growth rate dropped to 1.39% year-over-year as of October 2024[12] Job Market Trends - As of October 2024, the average weekly wage for non-farm employment rose to 4.0%, up by 0.4 percentage points from September, showing a temporary improvement in wage growth despite economic concerns[3] - Job vacancies in the non-government sector decreased to 6.626 million as of September 2024, down from over 10 million in 2022, indicating a continued slowdown in hiring[3] - The labor market's tightness is changing, with average monthly hiring plans rising to 62,500, up by 20,500 from September's average[3] Sector-Specific Insights - The education and healthcare sectors added 57,000 and 10,000 jobs respectively, while the information services sector saw a slight increase of 3,000 jobs, reflecting a mixed performance across industries[4] - The construction sector's job vacancies increased to 370,000, highlighting ongoing demand in that area despite overall job vacancy declines[3] Economic Implications - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability has increased, with a 25 basis point cut expected in December due to the unexpected drop in non-farm employment[3] - The report suggests that wage pressures may continue due to strikes in sectors like rail, aviation, and ports, which could impact overall labor costs moving forward[3]