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恒帅股份:24Q3业绩点评:电机产品增量前景广阔,ADAS清洗加速渗透
300969HMC(300969) 甬兴证券·2024-11-04 02:00

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting confidence in its growth prospects and new product developments [6] Core Views - The company's micro-motor products have broad incremental application prospects, with 24Q3 revenue increasing by 9.01% quarter-over-quarter [3] - Despite a year-over-year decline in 24Q3 revenue (-8.69%) and net profit (-18.39%), the company has developed multiple motor varieties for the four-door two-cover field, indicating significant market potential [3] - The company's profitability is under pressure, with a 24Q3 gross margin of 33.94% (down 3.34pct year-over-year) and a net margin of 19.85% (down 2.36pct year-over-year) [3] - The company's ADAS cleaning system is expected to accelerate penetration, with new motor projects entering mass production and overseas factories progressing [3] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of approximately 704 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 6.30%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 164 million yuan, up 8.96% year-over-year [2] - 24Q3 revenue was approximately 241 million yuan, with a net profit of 48 million yuan [3] - The company's 24Q3 operating expense ratio was 10.79%, with sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios changing by +1.02pct/-0.53pct/-0.30pct/+2.22pct quarter-over-quarter [3] Growth Prospects - The company's revenue is expected to grow to 1.04 billion, 1.18 billion, and 1.35 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 12.1%, 13.9%, and 14.7% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach 220 million, 259 million, and 302 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, with growth rates of 9.1%, 17.4%, and 16.8%, respectively [4] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 29.0x, 24.7x, and 21.1x, respectively [4] Industry and Product Development - The company's motor products are in the penetration phase, with significant room for customer expansion and market growth [3] - The company is collaborating with German company Lenze on drum motor products, which are expected to enter mass production and be applied in automotive, industrial automation, and humanoid robot scenarios [3] - The company's ADAS cleaning products have secured some customer orders, with more incremental models expected to enter the order cycle [3] Valuation and Financial Ratios - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 2.76, 3.23, and 3.78 yuan, respectively [5] - The company's ROE for 2024-2026 is expected to be 16.7%, 16.4%, and 16.1%, respectively [5] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve from 36.7% in 2024 to 38.2% in 2026, with net margins of 21.3%, 21.9%, and 22.3% over the same period [9]