山西汾酒：3季度公司业绩稳健增长，现金流表现优异

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Shanxi Fenjiu has shown steady growth in its third-quarter performance for 2024, with revenue reaching RMB 31.36 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 11.35 billion, up 20.3% year-on-year [3][5] - The company has demonstrated strong cash flow performance, with a notable increase in sales cash receipts by 30.8% year-on-year in the third quarter [3] - The report anticipates revenue growth rates of 16.5%, 11.6%, and 11.1% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 19.7%, 13.7%, and 12.3% for the same years [4][6] Summary by Sections Company Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 8.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and a net profit of RMB 2.94 billion, up 10.4% year-on-year [5] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 74.3%, slightly down by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [5] - The company’s contract liabilities decreased to RMB 5.48 billion, reflecting a reduction of RMB 250 million from the previous quarter [3] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor in Q3 2024 was RMB 6.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, showing an acceleration compared to Q2 2024 [3] - Revenue from other liquor categories grew significantly by 25.6% year-on-year, accounting for 28.0% of total revenue [3] Regional Performance - Revenue from the domestic market reached RMB 3.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, while revenue from outside the province was RMB 5.09 billion, up 10.9% year-on-year [3] Financial Projections - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 10.24, 11.65, and 13.08 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20.4X, 17.9X, and 16.0X [4][6] - The company’s EBITDA is expected to grow from RMB 17.19 billion in 2024 to RMB 21.21 billion by 2026 [4][6]