11月月报：牛市第二阶段整固期

Economic Outlook - The economic landscape in China is expected to shift from "externally strong and internally weak" to "internally strong and externally weak," with a slowdown in the recovery momentum of exports and manufacturing, while consumption and infrastructure sectors are anticipated to recover [8][17] - In October 2024, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, indicating a recovery, while the business condition index (BCI) increased to 48.1, reflecting improvements in domestic demand [8][9] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to slow down its rate cuts, with a 98.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in November and an 82.7% chance in December, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [30][38] - Domestic liquidity remains stable, with the average DR007 rate recorded at 1.66% in October, down 13 basis points from September, while medium to long-term rates saw a slight increase [31][40] Industry Configuration - The report suggests a continued tilt towards growth sectors, with a focus on computer, electric equipment, and non-banking financial industries for November [4][5] - The construction sector is expected to see accelerated investment growth due to proactive fiscal policies, with infrastructure investment year-to-date showing a cumulative year-on-year increase of 9.26% [25][28] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is showing signs of recovery, with October retail sales growth reaching 3.2% year-on-year, and significant increases in household appliance and food consumption by 20.5% and 11.1%, respectively [23][25] - The automotive market is also witnessing a marginal improvement, with sales approaching levels seen in the same period last year [24]