煤炭行业周报：宏观变化扰动需求预期，优选确定性标的

Investment Rating - Rating: Overweight (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The macro changes disturb demand expectations, favoring certain investment targets. The coal price has been weak recently, primarily due to a slight decline in iron and steel production, raising concerns about peak production levels. The "golden September and silver October" peak season has ended, leading to a decrease in expectations for further production resumption in steel mills [10][11]. - The coal industry remains in a high prosperity phase, driven by capacity cycles. The supply-side reform initiated in 2016 has effectively reduced excess capacity, with a total of 110 million tons of outdated capacity eliminated, exceeding the target of 80 million tons [9][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Operational Tracking - The coal industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to the ongoing supply-side reforms and the limited release of new coal production capacity. The demand for coal is projected to grow alongside national economic growth, reinforcing coal's role in the energy system [9][10]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - As of November 1, 2024, the price of Shanxi-produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,740.0 CNY/ton, down 20.0 CNY/ton from the previous week, reflecting a 1.14% weekly decline and a 24.68% year-on-year decrease [15]. - The average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region is 715.00 CNY/ton, with no change from the previous week but a 2.46% year-on-year decline [15]. 3. Company Performance - China Shenhua reported a commodity coal production of 26.6 million tons in September 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, while total electricity generation increased by 32.9% [11][12]. - Shaanxi Coal achieved a coal production of 13.82 million tons in September 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.04% [12]. - Yanzhou Coal Energy reported a commodity coal production of 36.73 million tons in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.81% [13]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong dividend attributes such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as integrated assets like Xinjie Energy and Huaihe Energy. Additionally, companies like Zhongmei Energy and Jinkong Coal are expected to benefit from the current market conditions [10].