CRRC(601766) 东方财富·2024-11-04 02:23Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index over the next 3 to 12 months [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1430.35 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.51%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 61.52 billion yuan, up by 2.06% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 557.32 billion yuan, a 2.7% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 7.09% to 26.91 billion yuan [1]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to lead to a compensatory increase in railway investment, with an average annual investment of approximately 875 billion yuan from 2024 to 2025. This is driven by the need for maintenance and replacement of aging railway equipment, which is projected to boost the company's revenue from railway equipment significantly [2]. - The company has optimized its cost management, resulting in a decrease in the expense ratio to 14.91%, down by 0.82 percentage points year-on-year. This has led to an improvement in the net profit margin, which increased to 4.75%, up by 0.45 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1430.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.51%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 61.52 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.06% increase year-on-year. In Q3, the revenue was 557.32 billion yuan, a 2.7% increase, while net profit decreased by 7.09% to 26.91 billion yuan [1]. Market Outlook - The railway equipment sector is expected to experience rapid growth due to the compensatory investment from the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the need for maintenance and replacement of aging equipment. The company's railway business revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 717.65 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 36.69% [2]. Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced its expense ratio to 14.91%, which is a decrease of 0.82 percentage points compared to the previous year. This improvement in cost management has positively impacted the net profit margin, which rose to 4.75%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 129.97 billion yuan, 140.45 billion yuan, and 151.60 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to be 19, 17, and 16 times [6][7].