英大证券：金点策略晨报—每周报告-20241104

Market Overview - The market shows increasing divergence between bulls and bears, with potential interference from overseas factors [1][12] - Short-term market fluctuations do not affect the medium-term positive outlook; investors are advised to avoid blind chasing of prices and consider reducing positions at highs while waiting for new buying opportunities [1][10] - The overall trend remains positive due to liquidity easing and supportive policies, allowing medium-term investors to hold positions and await upward trends [1][10] Weekly Market Review - Last week, the market experienced a fluctuating upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.17%, the Shenzhen Component by 2.53%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.0% [2] - The trading volume reached 17,721 billion yuan, indicating active market sentiment and good profit-making opportunities [2] - The performance of various sectors showed significant gains in new energy, semiconductor, aerospace, and cultural media, while insurance and precious metals faced declines [2][4][5] Sector Analysis New Energy Sector - The new energy sector, including photovoltaic equipment and batteries, saw substantial gains, with a notable rebound after significant declines since November 2021 [2][3] - The demand for lithium batteries, photovoltaics, wind power, and energy storage continues to grow globally, supporting the sector's recovery into Q4 2024 [3] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector is expected to maintain a long-term positive outlook, driven by government support and increasing domestic demand [3] - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 16% in 2024, reaching a scale of 611 billion USD, with further growth anticipated in 2025 [3] Aerospace and Military Sector - Aerospace and military stocks have seen significant increases, supported by government policies aimed at modernizing defense capabilities [4] - The military budget in China has shown steady growth, which is expected to benefit military enterprises [4] Cultural Media Sector - The cultural media sector, particularly in gaming and interactive content, has experienced growth due to advancements in AI technology and increased consumer interest [5] - The sector is expected to benefit from the ongoing development of new entertainment industries and the recovery of the film market [5] Electronic Sector - The electronic sector is gaining strength, with IDC raising its forecast for mobile phone deliveries in 2024 by 5.8% to 1.23 billion units, with AI phones expected to capture 18% of the market [5] - The rapid development of 5G, AI, and IoT technologies presents new opportunities for the consumer electronics industry [5] Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by accelerated sector rotation, with previously lagging sectors like new energy and pharmaceuticals experiencing a rebound [8][11] - Trading volume has fluctuated, with a significant drop to 1.5 trillion yuan on one day, indicating potential challenges in sustaining upward momentum [8][11] - Core indices are showing signs of divergence, reflecting increasing disagreements between bullish and bearish sentiments in the market [8][12]