泸州老窖：三季报点评：压力释放，蓄力来年

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 7.399 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.566 billion yuan, up 2.58% year-on-year, which is slightly below previous expectations. The weak business demand in 2024 is expected to recover in 2025, providing performance elasticity for the company. Current market concerns regarding short-term performance are gradually dissipating, and public fund holdings have decreased to a phase low. The company is viewed as a high-end liquor with cost-effective valuation, and macro expectations are likely to bring significant valuation elasticity [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 24.304 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.76%, and a net profit of 11.593 billion yuan, up 9.72% year-on-year. However, Q3 revenue and profit were slightly below expectations, with revenue growth slowing compared to sales receipts [6][7]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 88.12%, a slight decrease of 0.52 percentage points year-on-year, indicating stable profitability. The net profit margin was 48.19%, an increase of 0.90 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on a "dual brand, three product lines, and major products" development strategy, with expectations for growth driven by mid-to-high-end liquors such as Guojiao 1573, aged liquor, and special liquor. Market initiatives include promotional activities to enhance consumer engagement and strengthen ties with younger demographics [6][7]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 32.595 billion yuan, 34.213 billion yuan, and 35.898 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.81%, 4.97%, and 4.92%. Net profits are projected to be 13.907 billion yuan, 14.188 billion yuan, and 14.921 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 4.99%, 2.02%, and 5.17% [6][7].