建发股份：营收利润下滑，地产投销有韧性

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 502.136 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 16.13% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.058 billion yuan, down 83.43% year-on-year. Excluding the impact of a restructuring gain from the acquisition of a 29.95% stake in Meikailong, the net profit decreased by 872 million yuan, or 29.76% year-on-year [2][6]. - The company's strong supply chain risk control and stable real estate sales are expected to lead to continuous growth in non-recurring performance in the future [2][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 183.122 billion yuan, down 14.94% year-on-year, and a net profit of 859 million yuan, down 91.81% year-on-year [6]. - The supply chain segment reported a net profit of 2.244 billion yuan, down 10.20% year-on-year, while the real estate segment contributed 381 million yuan, down 19.04% year-on-year. The home furnishing mall operations segment reported a net loss of 567 million yuan due to a decline in rental rates [7]. Business Segments - The real estate business showed resilience with a sales amount of 85.3 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 36% year-on-year, ranking 7th in the industry [7]. - The company maintained strong land acquisition activity, with a total land acquisition amount of 27.9 billion yuan, ranking 3rd in the industry [7]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 703.873 billion yuan, 732.172 billion yuan, and 755.839 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7.83%, +4.02%, and +3.23% [8]. - Net profit projections for the same years are 3.621 billion yuan, 4.145 billion yuan, and 4.543 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -72.36%, +14.47%, and +9.60% [8].