房地产 2026 年 03 月 28 日 相关研究 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略：潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 地方陆续出台放松政策，商业不动产 REITs 持续推进 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/3/21-2026/3/27） 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 1．行业数据 1.1 新房成交量 1.1.1 成交周环比：上周 34 城周成交环比上升 43%，一二线环比上升 47%、三四线环比下降 10% 上周(3.21-3.27)34 个重点城市新 ...

房地产 2026 年 03 月 28 日 相关研究 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略：潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 地方陆续出台放松政策，商业不动产 REITs 持续推进 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/3/21-2026/3/27） 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 上周(3.21-3.27)34 个重点城市新房合计成交 369.1 万平米，环比上升 42.8%，较 25 年周均成交 241 万平米上升 53.1%，较本年周均成交 186.6 万平米上升 97.8%。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各 ...

3月27日，物流ETF富国（516910）开盘跌0.92%，报1.190元。物流ETF富国（516910）重仓股方面，中 远海控开盘跌0.66%，顺丰控股跌0.76%，京沪高铁跌0.40%，招商轮船涨0.18%，大秦铁路跌0.19%，圆 通速递涨0.30%，蔚蓝锂芯跌1.72%，中远海能跌1.72%，物产中大跌0.97%，建发股份跌0.44%。 3月27日，物流ETF富国（516910）开盘跌0.92%，报1.190元。物流ETF富国（516910）重仓股方面，中 远海控开盘跌0.66%，顺丰控股跌0.76%，京沪高铁跌0.40%，招商轮船涨0.18%，大秦铁路跌0.19%，圆 通速递涨0.30%，蔚蓝锂芯跌1.72%，中远海能跌1.72%，物产中大跌0.97%，建发股份跌0.44%。 物流ETF富国（516910）业绩比较基准为中证现代物流指数收益率，管理人为富国基金管理有限公司， 基金经理为张圣贤，成立（2021-06-03）以来回报为19.97%，近一个月回报为0.52%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资 ...

证券研究报告 解构和重塑地产股的PB —— 行业专题报告 行业评级：看好 2026年3月23日 分析师 杨凡 邮箱 yangfan02@stock.com.cn 电话 13916395118 证书编号 S1230521120001 报告核心内容摘要 1. 行业估值演进：从PE到PB，折射周期之变 Ø 房地产作为周期之母，其估值逻辑随行业发展阶段更迭而演变。本报告将地产股估值划分为三个阶段：2010年以前为成长股逻辑，市场以PE为主导，关注高增长；2011- 2020年为政策约束期，盈利弹性受抑，但PE仍是核心，市场开始关注销售前瞻指标；2021年至今，行业进入存量博弈与供给侧出清阶段，市场焦点转向资产安全边际，PB 估值取代PE成为主导工具。 2. PB估值解构：小于1倍的深层逻辑与内部分化 3. PB估值突破：去化率是核心变量，关注结构性机会 4. 投资策略与风险提示 Ø 维持2026年度策略"深度挖掘α个股"的判断，投资排序为：商管 > 物业 > 产业园 > 中介 = 开发商龙头 > 转型标的。商管凭借高ROE和稳健现金流，在当前地产周期底 部的稳定性和估值修复空间均更为可观；转型股通过改变主营业务重塑r ...

房地产 2026 年 03 月 22 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 29% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《十五五规划纲要正式发布，住建部 表 态 坚 决 稳 住 楼 市 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2026.3.15 《自然资源部 38 号文定调，土地市场 进 入 存 量 时 代 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.3.12 《逆境磨砺，暗藏契机—房地产行业 2026 春季投资策略》-2026.3.3 单周成交数据仍降，南京郑州地产政策优化 ——行业周报 齐东（分析师） 胡耀文（分析师） qidong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522010002 huyaowen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070001 单周成交数据仍降，南京郑州地产政策优化 本周我们跟踪的全国 30城新房成交面积和 15城二手房成交面积均连续六周同比 下降，反映出"小阳春"成色略有不足。本周央行提出继续实施好适度宽松的货 币政策，南京和郑州均出台了一系列地产优化政策，在各项促进房地 ...

房地产 单周成交数据仍降，南京郑州地产政策优化 ——行业周报 齐东（分析师） 胡耀文（分析师） qidong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522010002 2026 年 03 月 22 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 29% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《十五五规划纲要正式发布，住建部 表 态 坚 决 稳 住 楼 市 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2026.3.15 《自然资源部 38 号文定调，土地市场 进 入 存 量 时 代 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.3.12 《逆境磨砺，暗藏契机—房地产行业 2026 春季投资策略》-2026.3.3 价格端：2026 年第 12 周，冰山 100 指数为 9994，周环比-0.1%，周同比-12.5%； 其中北京、上海、深圳、广州周同比分别-14.9%、-11.1%、-10.1%、-12.8%，环 比分别持平、+0.2%、-0.1%、-0.2%。 风险提示：市场信心恢复不及预期，政策影响不及预期。 huyaowen@ky ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产开发与服务 26 年第 12 周 楼市热度维持高涨，核心城市企稳可期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-03-22 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -14% -6% 1% 9% 16% 24% 03/25 06/25 08/25 10/25 01/26 03/26 房地产 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]郭镇 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260514080003 | | | SFC CE No. BNN906 | | | 021-38003639 | | | guoz@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 邢莘 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260520070009 | | | 021-38003638 | | | xingshen@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 谢淼 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260522070007 | | | ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate market remains robust, with stabilization expected in core cities [1] - The industry rating is maintained at "Buy" [2] Policy Overview - The central bank has kept the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged, while local governments are optimizing housing fund policies, including subsidies for home purchases in cities like Shaoxing [6][17] - Local policies include increased housing fund withdrawal limits and adjustments to down payment ratios for commercial properties [19][21] Transaction Performance - New home transaction volume in 49 cities reached 350.85 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 20.2%, but a year-on-year decrease of 14.1% [22][23] - Second-hand home transactions have shown a week-on-week increase of 2.3%, marking five consecutive weeks of growth [22] Market Sentiment - The new home supply has decreased by 22% week-on-week, while the transaction volume has exceeded the new supply, indicating improved absorption rates [6] - The average price of second-hand homes is stable at 10,176 yuan per square meter, with expectations for positive price trends in the coming month [6] Land Market Performance - Land supply has increased, with transaction revenue from residential land in 300 cities reaching 21.5 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 2.0% [6] - The land transaction area was 7.2 million square meters, with a weekly transaction conversion rate of 64% [6] Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - Major companies in the sector, such as Vanke A and China Overseas Development, maintain a "Buy" rating with reasonable values set at 7.64 yuan and 16.02 yuan per share, respectively [7] - The report highlights the financial metrics of various companies, including EPS and PE ratios, indicating potential investment opportunities [7] C-REITs Market Overview - The C-REITs sector saw a slight decline in the comprehensive return index by 0.06%, with 39 out of 78 REITs experiencing gains [6]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry has officially entered a new development stage of "stabilization and quality upgrade" in 2025, with significant improvements in delivery capabilities and buyer confidence [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The central government continues to deepen the real estate financing whitelist system, with over 7.5 million historically delayed housing units completed and the pilot of selling completed homes expanding [1] - The asset-liability structure of companies has substantially improved, with a stable delivery pattern characterized by quality upgrades and steady volume [1] - Leading real estate companies have stabilized their delivery scales, and the ability of distressed companies to fulfill commitments has significantly recovered [1] Group 2: Delivery Capability Assessment - The "2025 China Real Estate Enterprise Delivery Capability TOP 50" evaluates companies based on total delivery scale, timeliness, satisfaction, and completeness of delivery systems [13] - The top 50 companies have become the main force in ensuring delivery, with an increasing proportion of high-quality improvement projects [16] Group 3: Policy and Mechanisms - The central government has established a long-term policy mechanism for the real estate market, focusing on ensuring delivery, preventing risks, and stabilizing expectations [15] - Key measures include the normalization of the real estate financing whitelist, full-cycle supervision of pre-sale funds, and the expansion of the completed home sales pilot [15] Group 4: Delivery Quality and Experience - Delivery capability has evolved from merely "on-time delivery" to a comprehensive ability encompassing full-process systems, precision craftsmanship, and full-cycle services [19] - The delivery process now integrates design and operation, creating a complete loop that enhances the value from "building good homes" to "living well" [19] Group 5: Notable Delivery Projects - The top delivery projects of 2025 include high-end, light luxury, and quality works, showcasing the industry's focus on quality and customer experience [6][9][11] - Notable projects include "Poly Tianrui" in Guangzhou and "Beijing Yuefu," reflecting the industry's commitment to high standards [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, focusing on high-quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [4][30]. Core Insights - The investment side remains weak, with a significant decline in new starts and completions, indicating a challenging environment for the real estate sector [4][20]. - Sales metrics show a contraction, but the decline is narrowing, suggesting a potential bottoming out phase for the market [21][30]. - Funding sources are under pressure, with a notable decrease in domestic loans and personal mortgage loans, although there are signs of gradual improvement expected due to policy support [33]. Summary by Sections Investment Side - In January-February 2026, real estate development investment totaled 961.2 billion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with new starts down 23.1% and completions down 27.9% [4][20]. - The report forecasts a continued weak investment environment, with predictions of a 7.7% decline in new starts, a 13.1% decline in completions, and a 9.1% decline in overall investment for 2026 [4][20]. Sales Side - The total sales area for January-February 2026 was 0.9 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, while sales revenue fell by 20.2% to 818.6 billion yuan [21][30]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 7.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pricing pressure in the market [29][30]. - The report anticipates that sales will remain below demand levels in the short term, with a forecast of a 7.6% decline in sales area, a 9.4% decline in sales revenue, and a 2.0% decline in prices for 2026 [32][30]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development in January-February 2026 were 1.3 trillion yuan, down 16.5% year-on-year, with domestic loans decreasing by 13.9% [33]. - The report highlights a tightening in funding conditions, particularly in personal mortgage loans, which saw a 41.9% year-on-year decline [33]. - Despite the current funding pressures, the report suggests that ongoing policy support may lead to gradual improvements in funding availability [33].