截至2025年7月22日 14:23，中证国有企业红利指数(000824)强势上涨1.80%，成分股隧道股份(600820)、山西焦煤(000983)、昊华能源(601101)纷纷10cm涨 停，山煤国际(600546)，潞安环能(601699)等个股跟涨。国企红利ETF(159515)上涨1.83%， 冲击3连涨。 光大证券指出，近期"反内卷"预期持续加强，预计煤价走势将偏强，叠加用煤旺季来临，煤炭板块中长期预期不悲观。 国信证券表示"高股息价值仍存，阶段博弈弹性"。该机构指出，上半年煤价摸底，下半年随着供需格局改善，煤价尚存持续反弹潜力，中期维度看好煤炭需 求韧性。从经营指标看，在业绩压力较大的2025Q1，煤炭板块表现依旧排名靠前，如较低的资产负债率(44.7%)、较高的净利率水平(12.7%)、以及相对较高 的ROE。在当前低利率的宏观环境中，业绩稳健的高股息龙头标依旧具备较高配置价值。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | eolala | 中远海控 | 3.72% | 2.36% | | 000937 | 冀中能源 | 2.6 ...

3月27日，历经213轮的竞价，建发以总成交价33.47亿元夺得成都金融城三期H10地块，溢价率达 106%，成交楼面价为4.12万元/平方米，为成都宅地新单价地王。 隔天又在杭州刷新了最高宅地单价战绩。3月28日，建发历经102轮的激烈竞价，成功击退滨江、绿城、 中海、华润、伟星、招商、金茂等其余13家房企，以总价34.35亿元摘得蒋村文新单元XH030203-01 （3）地块，溢价率高达115.39%，成交楼面价8.8万元/平方米，成为杭州新单价地王。 日，无锡新吴区华光锅炉厂A地块正式出让。最终由建发以底价8.2亿元摘得，成交楼面价为1.04万元/平 方米。而于10天前，建发才以总价6.95亿元斩获苏州姑苏区金门Z11号地块。 此次新竞得地块位于无锡新吴区城南路以东，旺庄港以北，出让面积约为6.61万平方米，容积率仅为 1.2。据市场消息，该地块是继2023年至今无锡为数不多非城投公司拿下的地块。 根据出让文件规划要求，该地块需要按二级高品质住区打造，新建住宅中成品住宅比例不低于80%，住 宅建筑层高不低于3米。 此外，大运河建设控制地带内住宅建筑≥12米(4层)且≤24米；大运河建设控制地带外住宅建筑 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting a low allocation to real estate stocks while highlighting potential recovery opportunities in the third quarter [6]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with A-share real estate stocks down by 2.2% and Hong Kong real estate stocks down by 0.4% during the week of July 12-18 [2]. - The land market shows a rising premium rate, with an average premium rate of 11% for residential land in 300 cities, despite a significant year-on-year decline in transaction volume [2][41]. - Sales of new homes in 47 cities totaled 253 million square meters, reflecting a 6% decrease week-on-week and a 9% decrease year-on-year, indicating a seasonal low [3][46]. - The report notes that some real estate companies are beginning to show signs of profit recovery, with 27 out of 73 companies forecasting positive net profits for the first half of 2025 [5][23]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share real estate sector ranked 30th among all sectors with a decline of 2.2%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector ranked 12th with a decline of 0.4% [2][27]. - The property service index in Hong Kong also saw a decline of 0.4%, underperforming compared to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which increased by 3.4% [2][33]. Land Market - In the week of July 12-18, the total area of residential land sold in 300 cities was 450 million square meters, down 20% week-on-week and 49% year-on-year, with a cumulative area of 19,610 million square meters for the year, reflecting a 5% year-on-year decrease [2][41]. Sales Data - New home sales in June showed a slight month-on-month price decline of 0.3% and a year-on-year decline of 3.7%, indicating a stabilizing market despite ongoing price pressures [3][4]. - The second-hand housing market also reflected similar trends, with a 1% increase week-on-week but a 3% decrease year-on-year in transaction volume [3]. Company Performance - Among the 73 real estate companies that released performance forecasts, 27 expect positive net profits, while 46 anticipate losses. Notably, 6 companies are expected to report profit increases, including prominent firms like Binhai Group and Poly Development [5][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the third quarter will be crucial for policy adjustments that could impact the real estate market's performance in the latter half of the year. It recommends investing in companies with strong product capabilities and those likely to benefit from favorable policies [6].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index Transportation Industry Index has shown a slight decline over the past month but has increased over the last three months and year-to-date, indicating a mixed performance in the transportation sector [2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Index Transportation Industry Index reported a decrease of 0.91% over the past month, an increase of 3.46% over the last three months, and a year-to-date increase of 0.05% [2]. - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of different industry companies within the China Securities Index sample, categorized into various industry levels [2]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten weighted companies in the China Securities Index Transportation Industry Index are: SF Express (9.92%), Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (9.56%), COSCO Shipping Holdings (9.55%), Datong Railway (9.49%), Spring Airlines (4.07%), YTO Express (3.58%), China Merchants Energy Shipping (3.05%), Jianfa Holdings (2.8%), Wuzhou International (2.71%), and Blue Lithium (2.49%) [2]. - The index's holdings are primarily listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (73.43%) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (26.57%) [2]. Group 3: Industry Breakdown - The industry composition of the index includes: logistics (23.54%), shipping (23.29%), railway transportation (22.73%), express delivery (16.98%), air transportation (10.96%), road transportation (2.16%), and public transport (0.33%) [3]. - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [3].

NO.1 福州发布非居存量房改建保租房细则 7月15日，《福州市非居住存量房屋改建为保障性租赁住房实施细则》发布，明确四城区范围内符合条 件的商业办公、旅馆、科研教育等非居住存量房屋，可申请改建为保障性租赁住房。改建需满足四项核 心要求：一是规模合理，单项目不少于50套（间）且总建筑面积≥1500平方米；二是安全达标，须通过 房屋结构安全鉴定和消防技术评估；三是标准规范，宿舍型执行《宿舍建筑设计规范》，住宅型执行 《住宅建筑规范》；四是运营透明，产权人需承诺"不分割登记、不转让、不以租代售"，并接受年度全 覆盖检查。 7月17日，克而瑞发布数据显示，受季节性因素影响，6月法拍房挂拍量上升、成交量回落，但市场热度 仍得以保持。具体来看，6月法拍房供应规模3.2万套，创年内新高；成交3215套，如期回落；成交率环 比持平，70%的房源溢价成交，市场信心延续年内高位。同时，低折扣法拍房成交占比上升，买方更加 注重非价格因素。 点评：这一现象或显示部分资产流动性承压。对于相关房地产企业而言，市场库存压力或有提升。从行 业板块看，法拍房大量涌入，对新房、二手房市场价格体系或形成冲击，加剧市场竞争，促使行业加速 调整。 ...

Group 1 - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo (Chain Expo) highlights the increasing internationalization and globalization efforts of Xiamen C&D Inc., a core member of the Fortune Global 500 C&D Group, which has established business relationships with over 170 countries and regions [1] - C&D Inc. focuses on serving China's industrial needs and aligns its strategies with national initiatives, particularly in key markets such as Belt and Road countries, BRICS nations, and RCEP member countries [1] - Beijing Bank showcases innovations in supply chain finance and cross-border finance, emphasizing the importance of global supply chain stability and offering multi-currency settlement services [3][4] Group 2 - Beijing Bank's "Foreign Exchange Jing Manager" brand provides 5A-level cross-border services covering 173 countries, facilitating seamless transactions between domestic and foreign currencies [4] - YTO Express, the only private express logistics company at the expo, is actively building logistics infrastructure in Central Asia and has established a cross-border express logistics network with Kazakhstan, processing over 30,000 cross-border packages daily [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [5][14][25] Core Insights - The central urban work conference held from July 14 to 15, 2025, marks a transition in China's urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, emphasizing quality over quantity in urban expansion [5][6] - The conference highlights the importance of urban renewal as a key strategy for high-quality urban development, aligning with previous action plans and signaling forthcoming supportive policies [5][6] - The report anticipates that urban development will increasingly focus on core cities, with a shift towards improving existing urban stock rather than expanding new areas [5][6] - Future urban development is expected to differentiate between cities, with a strong emphasis on creating modern, livable, and resilient urban environments [5][6] Summary by Sections Urban Development Transition - The report notes that urbanization is moving from a phase of rapid growth to one of stable development, with a focus on enhancing existing urban quality [5][7] - The emphasis is on integrated planning for population, industry, urban areas, and transportation to optimize urban spatial structures [5][9] Urban Renewal as a Strategy - Urban renewal is identified as a critical lever for achieving high-quality urban development, with expectations for specific policies to be implemented following the conference [5][8] - The report suggests that urban renewal efforts will be concentrated in first and second-tier cities, reflecting a strategic shift in urban planning [5][8] Future Urban Development Focus - The report outlines seven key tasks for urban work, including optimizing urban systems, fostering innovation, enhancing livability, promoting green cities, ensuring safety, cultivating cultural values, and developing smart cities [8][9][10] - The focus on creating "good housing" aligns with the broader goal of improving living conditions and urban quality, with potential support for quality real estate companies [5][9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies within the real estate sector, including those with strong product capabilities and those positioned for valuation recovery, as well as second-hand housing intermediaries and property management firms [5][14][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, anticipating stronger policies to stabilize the market [3][4][36]. Core Insights - The investment and sales in the real estate sector are both weakening, with expectations for more robust policies to halt the decline and stabilize the market [3][4]. - The report highlights that the investment in real estate from January to June 2025 has decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with new starts down by 20.0% and completions down by 14.8% [4][19]. - Sales volume and prices are both declining, with sales area down by 3.5% and sales amount down by 5.5% in the same period [20][35]. - Funding sources are tightening, with a 6.2% year-on-year decline in total funding sources for real estate development [36][38]. Investment Analysis Investment Side - Real estate development investment totaled 466.58 billion yuan from January to June 2025, down 11.2% year-on-year, with June alone seeing a 12.9% decline [4][19]. - New starts and completions are also down significantly, with new starts down 20.0% and completions down 14.8% year-on-year [19][20]. Sales Side - The total sales area for real estate was 460 million square meters, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, with June seeing a 5.5% decline [20][35]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with June's average price at 9,649 yuan per square meter, down 5.6% year-on-year [34][35]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 500.2 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, with domestic loans showing a positive growth of 0.6% [36][38]. - Sales returns are weakening, with deposits and prepayments down by 16.7% year-on-year in June [36][38].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, with new housing prices showing a decrease in month-on-month (MoM) but a smaller year-on-year (YoY) decline. The second-hand housing prices are experiencing a similar trend, with a YoY decline narrowing while the MoM decline is expanding [8][19][26]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - In June 2025, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -0.3%, -0.2%, and -0.3% respectively, with a total of 70 cities showing a MoM decline of -0.3%, which is a 0.1 percentage point increase in decline compared to May [14][15]. - The YoY decline for new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities was -1.4%, -3.0%, and -4.6% respectively, leading to an overall YoY decline of 3.7% for 70 cities, which is a reduction of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [14][15]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing prices in June 2025 saw a MoM decline of -0.6%, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of -0.7%, -0.6%, and -0.6% respectively. This represents an increase in the decline of 0.1 percentage points compared to May [19][21]. - The YoY decline for second-hand housing prices across 70 cities was -6.1%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -3.0%, -5.8%, and -6.7% respectively, indicating a narrowing of the decline for some tiers [19][22]. Regional Performance - In June 2025, Shanghai led the new housing market with a MoM increase of +0.4% and a YoY increase of +6.0%. Among the 35 key cities, only Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Taiyuan saw YoY increases in new housing prices [26][27]. - The second-hand housing prices in June across 35 cities showed a decline, with only Xining experiencing a MoM increase of +0.1%. The overall trend indicates a consistent decline in second-hand housing prices since early 2024 [26][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong credit real estate companies that are well-positioned to meet the needs of improvement-oriented customers, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development [8][26]. - It also recommends companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group, as well as high-quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy [8][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 50.1% week-on-week [2][3]. - The report anticipates further policy support to stabilize the real estate market, with potential measures including mortgage rate cuts and increased supply of quality housing [2][36]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 1.983 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 50.1% [2][3]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in July decreased by 16.0%, with first and second-tier cities down by 15.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 23.4% [4][11]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities reached 1.078 million square meters, a week-on-week decline of 6.6% [11]. - Year-to-date, second-hand home sales have increased by 8.8% compared to the previous year [11]. Inventory and Supply - In 15 cities, 880,000 square meters of new homes were launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.71, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [20][21]. - The average months of inventory for new homes is 19.6 months, reflecting a slight increase [20]. Policy and News Tracking - The National Development and Reform Commission is increasing investment in key areas of new urbanization, indicating a proactive approach to stimulate the housing market [30][31]. - Local governments are implementing targeted policies, such as restrictions on the registration of small property rights houses in Guangdong and new housing subsidy programs in Wuxi [30][31]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies are actively engaging in financing and capital market operations, with notable activities including Shenzhen Tianjian Group's issuance of medium-term notes worth 650 million yuan [36]. - Companies like Beike-W are also engaging in share buybacks, indicating confidence in their market position [36]. Sector Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the market, with the SW Real Estate Index rising by 6.12% compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 Index [2][36]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for major A-share real estate companies for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 14.7 and 13.1 times, respectively [2].