2025 年 10 月 21 日 投资收缩快于销售下降,行业继续完库存当中 房地产 1-9 月月报 本期投资提示: 申万宏源研究微信服务 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 (8621)23297818× quzheng@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 投资端: 投资低位继续走弱, 开工降幅收窄、竣工单月转正。从 2025 年 1-9 月累计来 看，投资同比-13.9%，较前值-1pct; 新开工同比-18.9%，较前值+0.6pct; 施工同比- 9.4%，较前值-0.1pct; 竣工同比-15.3%，较前值+2pct。9 月单月来看, 投资同比- 21.3%,较前值-1.8pct;开工同比-14.4%,较前值+5.9pct;竣工同比+1.5%,较前值 +22.9pct。我们认为,目前房地产行业投资端依然较弱,尤其短期拿地偏弱,并考虑到 本轮周期中供给主体的过度出清及补库存的困难，从而导致 ...

行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 10 月 21 日 投资收缩快于销售下降，行业继续去库存当中 看好 ——房地产 1-9 月月报 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 (8621)23297818× guzheng@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 究 报 告 房地产 证券分析师 相关研究 - ⚫ 投资端：投资低位继续走弱，开工降幅收窄、竣工单月转正。从 2025 年 1-9 月累计来 看，投资同比-13.9%，较前值-1pct；新开工同比-18.9%，较前值+0.6pct；施工同比- 9.4%，较前值-0.1pct；竣工同比-15.3%，较前值+2pct。9 月单月来看，投资同比- 21.3%，较前值-1.8pct；开工同比-14.4%，较前值+5.9pct；竣工同比+1.5%，较前值 +22.9pct。 ...

今年以来房企拿地持续聚焦核心城市，叠加核心城市推地节奏前置并加大优质地块供应力度，带动前三季度300城住 宅用地出让金同比增长12%，但成交面积仍下降8%。三季度以来，随着一二线核心城市优质地块推出节奏放缓，土 地市场有所降温，三季度300城住宅用地平均溢价率降至5.8%，成交面积及出让金同比分别下降13%和10%。城市 集中度方面，一二线城市土地出让金占比仍居高位，前三季度TOP20城市住宅用地出让金占全国比重为61%，但在 核心城市土地推出放缓下，占比较上半年下降7个百分点。 趋势来看，四季度通常是一年推地高峰，近几来四季度推出规模占全年比例在四成左右，预计市场供应将有所增 加，但土拍热度仍取决于新房销售能否持续好转，预计短期核心城市优质地块竞争态势或将延续，但多数城市或继 续低温运行。对于房企拿地而言，仍需聚焦核心城市、核心地段，但应避免拿"高价地"，以确保新获取项目的安全 性、流动性和盈利性。 300城：三季度核心城市推地放缓，住宅用地成交面积同比降幅扩大，出让金 同比由增转降 图：300城各类用地和住宅用地季度推出、成交规划建面及同比变化 图：300城各类用地和住宅用地季度出让金及同比变化 今年以来 ...

证券之星消息，10月17日物流板块较上一交易日下跌1.6%，华光源海领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3839.76，下跌1.95%。深证成指报收于12688.94，下跌3.04%。物流板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日物流板块主力资金净流出6.58亿元，游资资金净流入1.87亿元，散户资金净流入 4.71亿元。物流板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600755 厦门国贸 | | | 1531.42万 | 10.21% | -282.90万 | -1.89% | -1248.52万 | -8.33% | | 600153 建发股份 | | | 896.58万 | 4.92% | 603.63万 | 3.31% | -1500.21万 | -8.23% | | 600119 | 长江投资 | | 833.80万 | 9.61% | -250.41万 | -2. ...

7 मिम है | F 产 · 前 · 行 · 的 · 力 · 量 国 · 地 · 发 现 日 2025年1-9月 北京典型房企销售金额排行榜 (全国径) | 排名 | 企业简称 | 销售金额(亿元) | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 中海地产 | 310.8 1 | | 2 | 越秀地产 | 212.5 | | 3 | 华润置地 | 205.3 | | 4 | 中建智地 | 163.4 | | 5 | 招商蛇口 | 150.6 | | 6 | 建发房产 | 134.9 | | 7 | 北京城建 | 119.8 | | 8 | 保利发展 | 106.6 | | 9 | 中国金茂 | 102.6 | | 10 | 绿城中国 | 92.7 | | 11 | 朝阳城开 | 84.9 | | 12 | 首开股份 | 82.7 | | 13 | 北京建工 | 78.3 | | =14 | 未来科学城 | 70.9 | | --- | --- | --- | | 15 | 海开控股 | 66.8 | | 16 | 中建壹品 | 61.2 | | 17 | 金隅股份 | 54.9 | | 18 | ...

2025年10月13日，厦门建发集团有限公司在优质运营、创新突破、社会贡献等指标中表现优异，根据经 观受尊敬企业组委会初步评估，入围《经济观察报》2024—2025年度受尊敬企业。 ...

房地产 2025 年 10 月 12 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 房地产基本面依然低迷，板块业绩短期仍然承压 看好 ——房地产行业 2025 年三季报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 评 证 告 ⚫ 考虑到板块结算下降及利润率低位，预计 3Q2025 房企业绩仍承压、但有分化。基本面方 面，2022-24 年房地产行业基本面大幅下行；随着宏观及行业政策持续加码，预计后续行 业基本面有望呈现底部复苏迹象，但复苏态势仍然缓慢、且出现反复现象，预计改善路径 将呈现"L"型曲折性弱复苏走势。展望 3Q2025 板块业绩，我们认为板块业绩仍将继续 承压，主要源于：1）2021 年后销售连续下降导致结算下降；2）前期降价促 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the current real estate policies are under pressure from the fundamental market conditions, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the measures taken in 2008 and 2014 [4] - Real estate is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the week covering the National Day holiday, new housing transaction volume in 30 cities was 835,000 square meters, down 55.3% week-on-week and 53.4% year-on-year [11] - The decline in new housing transactions is attributed to a combination of last year's high base and the current market's sluggishness [11][12] - The report anticipates continued pressure on year-on-year data for the fourth quarter due to elevated bases from the previous year [11] Secondary Housing Transactions - In the same week, secondary housing transactions in 14 sample cities totaled 843,000 square meters, reflecting a 27.9% decrease week-on-week and a 47.9% decrease year-on-year [21] - Year-to-date, secondary housing transactions have reached 80.2 million square meters, showing a 16.1% increase compared to the previous year [21] Market Performance - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.8%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.30 percentage points, ranking 23rd among 31 Shenwan primary industries [32] - The report identifies a total of 64 stocks that increased in value during the week, while 43 stocks decreased [32] Credit Bond Issuance - During the week, two credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 940 million yuan, a decrease of 11.28 billion yuan from the previous week [3]

9 月销售降幅收窄,优质房企逆势增长 顾铮 A0230125070004 quzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 (8621)23297818× quzheng@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 2025 年 9 月房企销售数据点评 事件: 9 月 30 日，克而瑞发布 2025 年 9 月房地产公司销售排行，保利单月销售排名第一，实现销售金 额 205 亿元，中海、华润单月销售额分别为 202、176 亿元，排名第二、三位，前三门槛从去年同 期 169 亿元提升至 176 亿元。9 月单月销售过百亿房企为 6 家，较 2024 年同期持平。 点评: 若研究院 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 2025 年 10 月 08 日 9 月房企销售额单月同比-10%/累计同比-17%，分别较前值+3.4pct/+0.8pct，降幅收窄。根据 克而瑞数据，2025年９月，50 家房企单月销售金额 1,802 亿元，同比-10%，较前值+3.4pct; 销 售面 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry Core Insights - The performance of leading real estate companies declined year-on-year in August 2025, with land acquisition costs amounting to 13.55 billion yuan [6] - The average transaction area for new residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 21.16% year-on-year, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 4.51% [10] - The total bond financing in the real estate sector was 55.31 billion yuan in August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.3% [7] Summary by Sections 1. Overall Industry Performance in August 2025 - **Market Demand**: The average transaction area for new residential properties in first-tier cities was 470,300 m², down 21.16% year-on-year; second-tier cities recorded 313,800 m², down 4.51%; and third-tier cities saw 128,900 m², down 10.76% [10] - **Sales Situation**: The sales revenue of monitored brand real estate companies decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 15.0%. Among the 10 monitored companies, five experienced a year-on-year decline, with the largest drop being 58.9% for Jindi Group [5] - **Land Acquisition**: The total land acquisition cost for monitored brand real estate companies was 13.55 billion yuan, with a total land area of 273,000 m² acquired [6] - **Financing Situation**: The total bond financing in the real estate sector was 55.31 billion yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year, with credit bond financing at 30.78 billion yuan, down 18.4% [7] 2. Key Companies' Performance - **Vanke**: In August, Vanke acquired land with a total cost of 156 million yuan and reported a sales revenue of 9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7% [43][45] - **China Overseas Property**: This company recorded the highest month-on-month sales increase of 54.9% among the monitored companies [5] - **China Resources Land**: Acquired land with a total area of 19,100 m² and a planning area of 65,300 m² [38] 3. Policy Insights - The report highlights the government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market and promoting urban renewal, with policies aimed at enhancing housing supply and improving living conditions [12][19] - The emphasis on "good housing" construction and urban renewal is expected to drive future policy support for the real estate sector [24][25]