山西汾酒：三季报点评：经营稳健，行稳致远

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 8.611 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.940 billion yuan, up 10.36% year-on-year, aligning with previous expectations [2][6] - The growth in mid-to-high-end liquor sales accelerated compared to Q2, primarily driven by increased sales of Qinghua 20 and the upgrade of Laobai Fen, with other liquor categories also showing significant growth [2][6] - The company is expected to continue its national expansion strategy, maintaining a strong product matrix and category advantages, which supports the "Buy" rating [2][6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 31.358 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.25%, and a net profit of 11.350 billion yuan, up 20.34% year-on-year [6] - In Q3 2024, the company’s gross margin was 74.29%, a slight decrease of 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by changes in product mix [6] - The company’s management expense ratio increased, impacting profitability, with a net profit margin of 34.14%, down 0.31 percentage points year-on-year [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 36.946 billion yuan, 40.723 billion yuan, and 43.988 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.72%, 10.22%, and 8.02% [7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 12.446 billion yuan, 13.734 billion yuan, and 14.904 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 19.24%, 10.34%, and 8.52% [7] - The projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 19, 18, and 16 respectively [7]