太阳纸业2024年三季报点评：收入维持稳健，盈利有望筑底

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a steady revenue growth of 5.99% year-on-year in Q3 2024, achieving a revenue of 10.451 billion yuan, despite a declining trend in paper prices [2][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 20.84% year-on-year to 0.701 billion yuan in Q3 2024, while the non-recurring net profit decreased by 10.74% year-on-year to 0.774 billion yuan [2][6] - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability in Q4 2024 due to a significant decline in pulp prices, which will alleviate cost pressures [2][6] - The company is advancing its capacity expansion projects, reinforcing its integrated advantages in the forestry-pulp-paper industry [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 30.975 billion yuan, up 6.07% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.459 billion yuan, up 15.08% year-on-year [6][11] - In Q3 2024, the company’s gross margin was 13.96%, down 2.77 percentage points year-on-year [6][10] - The company’s expense ratio in Q3 was 5.59%, a decrease of 1.31 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [2][6] Capacity Expansion - The company is progressing with its capacity expansion projects, including the first phase of the Nanning project, which is expected to start trial production in Q4 2025 [6][7] - The company is also relocating and upgrading its dissolving pulp production line in Shandong, expected to be completed by Q2 2025 [6][7] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 42.169 billion yuan, 45.714 billion yuan, and 48.593 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 6.64%, 8.41%, and 6.30% respectively [6][7] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 3.290 billion yuan, 3.749 billion yuan, and 4.242 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 6.63%, 13.93%, and 13.16% respectively [6][7]