今世缘：三季报点评：业绩环比降速，尊重市场规律

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4][6] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 2.637 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.11%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 624 million yuan, up 6.61% year-on-year. Both revenue and profit were slightly below previous expectations [2][6] - High-end liquor sales are outpacing low-end liquor, with significant growth in the Suzhong and Huai'an regions. The company is focusing on increasing market share within the province while also expanding into external markets to unlock growth potential [2][6] - The company is proactively reducing targets to alleviate inventory pressure on distributors, which is expected to benefit mid-term volume and price balance [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 9.942 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.85%, and a net profit of 3.086 billion yuan, up 17.08% year-on-year [6] - Q3 2024 gross margin was 75.59%, down 5.14 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased discounts and rapid growth in certain product lines. The net profit margin was 23.68%, slightly down by 0.78 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company forecasts revenues of 11.759 billion yuan, 12.694 billion yuan, and 13.356 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.600 billion yuan, 3.816 billion yuan, and 4.023 billion yuan [6][7] Product and Regional Performance - In Q3 2024, revenue from different product categories was as follows: Special A+ class 1.813 billion yuan (+11.70%), Special A class 646 million yuan (+9.55%), A class 109 million yuan (+7.74%), while lower categories saw declines [6] - Revenue from domestic and foreign markets in Q3 2024 was 2.423 billion yuan and 204 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.32% and 23.04% [6] Valuation Metrics - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 55.123 billion yuan, with a current price of 43.94 yuan per share. The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 15, 14, and 14 respectively [4][7]